# Bitcoin vs M2 money supply | PIER20 benchmarks Has Bitcoin appreciated faster than the dollar money supply has grown? The Bitcoin vs M2 benchmark compares the US dollar price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) with the US M2 money supply published by the Federal Reserve. A rising line means Bitcoin is appreciating faster than the money stock is growing; a falling line means money supply is outpacing Bitcoin. It isolates Bitcoin's return in money-supply terms rather than dollar terms. As of **June 2026**, the Bitcoin (USD) line stands at **15472.5** and the M2 money supply line at **201.0** (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Bitcoin (USD) line is down 40.5% over the past year and above its long-run median of 2890.5. ## Summary statistics (full history) | Series | First | Latest | Min | Max | |---|---|---|---|---| | Bitcoin (USD) | 100.0 | 15472.5 | 57.4 | 28332.1 | | M2 money supply | 100.0 | 201.0 | 100.0 | 201.0 | ## Last 24 readings | Date | Bitcoin (USD) | M2 money supply | |---|---|---| | Jul 2024 | 15424.2 | 183.1 | | Aug 2024 | 14716.1 | 183.9 | | Sep 2024 | 14823.5 | 184.7 | | Oct 2024 | 16105.1 | 185.2 | | Nov 2024 | 21260.9 | 186.2 | | Dec 2024 | 24125.0 | 186.5 | | Jan 2025 | 24557.3 | 187.0 | | Feb 2025 | 23402.5 | 187.6 | | Mar 2025 | 20893.8 | 188.2 | | Apr 2025 | 21230.7 | 189.0 | | May 2025 | 25454.1 | 189.5 | | Jun 2025 | 25989.6 | 190.5 | | Jul 2025 | 28332.1 | 191.2 | | Aug 2025 | 28202.3 | 191.8 | | Sep 2025 | 27794.2 | 192.5 | | Oct 2025 | 28018.3 | 193.1 | | Nov 2025 | 23643.4 | 193.4 | | Dec 2025 | 21839.5 | 194.0 | | Jan 2026 | 22217.0 | 194.6 | | Feb 2026 | 16902.2 | 196.3 | | Mar 2026 | 17063.2 | 196.8 | | Apr 2026 | 18109.8 | 197.9 | | May 2026 | 19150.1 | 200.1 | | Jun 2026 | 15472.5 | 201.0 | ## How to read this benchmark **What a high reading means.** When the Bitcoin line climbs well above the M2 line, Bitcoin has delivered a large positive real, money-supply-adjusted return. Because Bitcoin's price is far more volatile than M2, the spread between the two lines is dominated by Bitcoin's swings, and the M2 line functions chiefly as a slow-moving benchmark for the purchasing power of each dollar. **Why M2 as the denominator.** M2 is the Federal Reserve's broad money measure, covering cash, checking, savings and small time deposits, and a dollar held as cash loses purchasing power roughly in line with its growth. Comparing Bitcoin to M2 asks whether Bitcoin has outpaced the creation of dollars themselves, which is a stricter test than comparing it to consumer prices. A Bitcoin line above M2 represents a real gain relative to the money stock. **Limitations.** Bitcoin is a single asset priced on global exchanges, while M2 is a domestic money aggregate, so the comparison crosses market and monetary regimes. The series begins in September 2014, when daily Bitcoin price data becomes reliable, so it excludes Bitcoin's earliest and largest percentage moves. The chart uses monthly averages of daily closes, which smooths intra-month volatility. Treat the comparison as context for Bitcoin's money-supply-adjusted return, not investment advice. **Historical extremes.** On the rebased scale (100 at the September 2014 start), Bitcoin peaked near 28,332 in July 2025 and bottomed around 57 in September 2015, the only month it traded below its starting level relative to M2. The M2 line has risen roughly threefold over the same window, so Bitcoin has outpaced money-supply growth by roughly two orders of magnitude at its highs. Prior drawdowns from peaks have been steep and fast, but the timing and depth of each cycle have varied widely. ## How this benchmark is used **The 'digital gold' store-of-value test.** Bitcoin is widely pitched as a fixed-supply alternative to fiat money, so the natural empirical test is whether it has outpaced the very money supply it claims to hedge against. This ratio answers that question directly: a Bitcoin line well above M2 is the evidence base for the store-of-value thesis, and the depth of each drawdown relative to M2 is the evidence base against it. **Cross-asset liquidity comparison.** Allocators comparing Bitcoin against gold and broad equities as inflation or debasement hedges use this ratio alongside the gold-vs-debt and total-equity-vs-M2 ratios to rank assets by money-supply-adjusted return over a shared window. Bitcoin's outperformance by roughly two orders of magnitude at its highs is the figure cited in that comparison. **Quantitative-easing response tracking.** The ratio is used to track Bitcoin's response to monetary regimes: it rose sharply through the 2020-2021 pandemic-era QE and corrected through the 2022 tightening, the same directional pattern seen in risk assets generally. Strategists use the ratio to ask whether Bitcoin is behaving as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset or a monetary hedge on any given regime. ## Frequently asked questions **What is the current bitcoin vs M2 money supply?** As of June 2026, the Bitcoin (USD) line stands at 15472.5 and the M2 money supply line at 201.0 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Bitcoin (USD) line is down 40.5% over the past year and above its long-run median of 2890.5. **How often is this benchmark updated?** This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file. **What data sources does this chart use?** The chart is built from Bitcoin (USD) and M2 money supply, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance. **What is the highest and lowest Bitcoin has reached relative to M2?** On the rebased scale (100 at the September 2014 start), the Bitcoin line peaked near 28,332 in July 2025 and bottomed around 57 in September 2015. The September 2015 low is the only month Bitcoin traded below its starting level relative to M2 in the dataset. **Has Bitcoin beaten money-supply growth?** Yes. Since September 2014 the M2 money supply has roughly doubled while Bitcoin's dollar price has grown by roughly two orders of magnitude, so the Bitcoin line stands far above the M2 line on the rebased scale. The gap is Bitcoin's real, money-supply-adjusted return over the window. **Why compare Bitcoin to M2 instead of inflation?** CPI measures consumer prices; M2 measures the money stock itself. Bitcoin vs CPI shows purchasing-power preservation; Bitcoin vs M2 shows whether Bitcoin has outpaced the creation of dollars themselves, which is a stricter test. PIER20 publishes both perspectives across the liquidity cluster. **Does a high Bitcoin-to-M2 reading mean a crash is coming?** Not by itself. A high reading shows Bitcoin is extended relative to the money supply, and prior peaks were followed by steep drawdowns as the ratio mean-reverted. But Bitcoin's volatility means the reversion has come through large price declines, sharp recoveries, or both, and the timing has been unpredictable. This benchmark is context for valuation regimes, not a market-timing signal, and PIER20 provides research software rather than investment advice. ## Methodology - Formula: Index BTC-USD (monthly avg adjusted close) and M2SL to 100 at the shared start - Frequency: Monthly - Sources: Bitcoin (USD) (BTC-USD) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD; M2 money supply (M2SL) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL. Data via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance. - Data through: June 2026 - Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026 ## Related benchmarks - [Total US stock market vs M2 money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/total-equity-vs-m2) - [Bitcoin and gold vs the money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/bitcoin-vs-gold-m2) - [Gold price vs US federal debt](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/gold-vs-debt) - [Nonfinancial corporate equity / M2](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/us-corporate-equity-to-m2) Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/bitcoin-vs-m2 Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.