# China private credit-to-GDP gap | PIER20 benchmarks

Is Chinese private credit running above its long-run trend?

China private credit-to-GDP gap tracks BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. It uses quarterly data.

The latest data is from **Q4 2025**. The Credit / GDP reading is **200.79 % of GDP**. The One-sided trend reading is **208.48 % of GDP**. The BIS credit gap reading is **-7.69 pp**. The Credit / GDP line is up 2.9 pp over the past year. It is above its long-run median of 137.63 % of GDP.

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit / GDP | 74.94 | 200.79 | 73.84 | 201.90 |
| One-sided trend | 80.68 | 208.48 | 79.98 | 208.48 |
| BIS credit gap | -5.74 | -7.69 | -14.67 | 25.46 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Credit / GDP | One-sided trend | BIS credit gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 189.47 | 189.99 | -0.52 |
| Q2 2020 | 193.82 | 191.46 | 2.36 |
| Q3 2020 | 194.73 | 192.91 | 1.82 |
| Q4 2020 | 192.45 | 194.15 | -1.70 |
| Q1 2021 | 190.18 | 195.20 | -5.02 |
| Q2 2021 | 187.48 | 196.03 | -8.55 |
| Q3 2021 | 185.48 | 196.70 | -11.22 |
| Q4 2021 | 182.48 | 197.15 | -14.67 |
| Q1 2022 | 185.51 | 197.72 | -12.21 |
| Q2 2022 | 187.25 | 198.33 | -11.08 |
| Q3 2022 | 187.64 | 198.92 | -11.27 |
| Q4 2022 | 187.28 | 199.43 | -12.15 |
| Q1 2023 | 193.20 | 200.22 | -7.02 |
| Q2 2023 | 193.49 | 200.98 | -7.49 |
| Q3 2023 | 194.01 | 201.71 | -7.69 |
| Q4 2023 | 193.02 | 202.33 | -9.31 |
| Q1 2024 | 198.24 | 203.19 | -4.95 |
| Q2 2024 | 198.36 | 204.00 | -5.65 |
| Q3 2024 | 198.84 | 204.79 | -5.95 |
| Q4 2024 | 197.89 | 205.47 | -7.58 |
| Q1 2025 | 201.90 | 206.32 | -4.42 |
| Q2 2025 | 201.81 | 207.12 | -5.30 |
| Q3 2025 | 201.45 | 207.84 | -6.39 |
| Q4 2025 | 200.79 | 208.48 | -7.69 |

## How to read this benchmark

**How to read it.** The BIS gap equals private credit to GDP minus its one-sided trend. A positive gap shows that credit is above trend.

## How this benchmark is used

**Why traders watch it.** Credit and equity traders use this benchmark to track Chinese private credit against its long-run trend.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the latest reading for China private credit-to-GDP gap?**

The latest data is from Q4 2025. The Credit / GDP reading is 200.79 % of GDP. The One-sided trend reading is 208.48 % of GDP. The BIS credit gap reading is -7.69 pp. The Credit / GDP line is up 2.9 pp over the past year. It is above its long-run median of 137.63 % of GDP.

**How often does this benchmark update?**

The source publishes quarterly data. PIER20 updates the page after each new observation. The chart shows the data date and fetch date.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the data. The methodology section lists each source series.

**Where does the data come from?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the source data. The source table lists each series and its exact link.

## Methodology

- Formula: BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap
- Frequency: Quarterly
- Sources: Credit / GDP (credit-gdp) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.CN.P.A.A; One-sided trend (credit-trend) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.CN.P.A.B; BIS credit gap (credit-gap) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.CN.P.A.C. Data via the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
- Data through: Q4 2025
- Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/china-private-credit-gap
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.