# Cross-asset speculative crowding | PIER20 benchmarks

How crowded is speculative positioning across equity, FX, rates and commodity futures simultaneously?

The cross-asset speculative crowding index aggregates CFTC positioning benchmarks into one gauge of how extended speculative positioning is across futures markets at the same time. Each market's primary cohort is ranked against its own trailing five-year history; the distance from the median is averaged within each asset class and then equal-weighted across the four classes. A reading of 100 means the average constituent is at a historical extreme; 50 means the average is around its 25th or 75th percentile; near 0 means positioning is close to median across the board.

As of **4 August 2026**, the latest reading is **54.47 index (0–100)**. That is down 2.4 index points over the past year and above its long-run median of 53.70 index (0–100).

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall crowding | 57.56 | 54.47 | 37.52 | 70.86 |
| Equities | 30.60 | 43.86 | 7.19 | 94.83 |
| FX | 76.75 | 65.58 | 14.99 | 83.73 |
| Rates | 47.24 | 56.07 | 19.52 | 98.35 |
| Commodities | 75.65 | 52.39 | 20.40 | 90.75 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Overall crowding | Equities | FX | Rates | Commodities |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2026 | 48.87 | 49.04 | 55.68 | 41.89 | 48.85 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | 44.58 | 31.11 | 55.68 | 43.42 | 48.08 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 42.71 | 27.28 | 46.49 | 48.40 | 48.66 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | 45.69 | 32.64 | 52.36 | 50.06 | 47.70 |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 48.10 | 38.62 | 53.21 | 54.79 | 45.79 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 52.89 | 51.03 | 54.75 | 52.13 | 53.64 |
| 7 Apr 2026 | 51.70 | 55.79 | 49.64 | 51.09 | 50.29 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | 55.40 | 73.26 | 51.26 | 45.08 | 52.01 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 53.72 | 66.51 | 48.62 | 45.34 | 54.41 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 51.85 | 58.08 | 46.23 | 44.57 | 58.52 |
| 5 May 2026 | 54.14 | 53.33 | 52.19 | 45.72 | 65.33 |
| 12 May 2026 | 51.27 | 59.46 | 47.42 | 38.70 | 59.48 |
| 19 May 2026 | 49.18 | 61.92 | 44.79 | 35.25 | 54.79 |
| 26 May 2026 | 51.84 | 71.42 | 38.83 | 39.46 | 57.66 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | 53.61 | 70.04 | 47.08 | 48.28 | 49.04 |
| 9 Jun 2026 | 51.53 | 69.58 | 47.34 | 45.72 | 43.49 |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 45.36 | 63.02 | 34.48 | 45.72 | 38.22 |
| 23 Jun 2026 | 53.30 | 67.89 | 64.37 | 39.46 | 41.48 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 52.15 | 64.24 | 64.79 | 43.17 | 36.40 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | 46.26 | 48.74 | 58.15 | 45.21 | 32.95 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 52.17 | 61.61 | 57.73 | 46.62 | 42.72 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | 49.68 | 47.23 | 59.11 | 43.42 | 48.95 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 51.59 | 42.45 | 64.62 | 47.38 | 51.92 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 54.47 | 43.86 | 65.58 | 56.07 | 52.39 |

## How to read this benchmark

**What a high or low reading means.** A high reading means speculative positioning is historically extreme across many futures markets at once, typically during trending markets where consensus has built up on one side, marking periods of elevated reversal risk. A low reading means positioning is near median across markets and the index carries little contrarian signal. The scale runs 0 to 100, where 100 is a historical extreme and 50 is roughly the 25th or 75th percentile of the average constituent's own range.

**How the index is built.** Each constituent's primary cohort Net/OI is ranked against its own trailing five-year history using only past observations (no look-ahead), with a 104-week minimum before any score is emitted. Crowding is twice the distance of that percentile from 50, so extremes in either direction count equally. Each asset-class subindex averages its contracts' scores and requires at least 60% coverage; overall is the equal-weighted mean of the four available subindices, so FX's larger contract count does not dominate.

**Why the eligible universe expands over time.** A contract only contributes to the index once it has 104 weeks of history (the minimum for a stable percentile). Several contracts begin later than others (Russell 2000 in 2017, SOFR in 2018, Ultra-10Y in 2016), so early-sample readings reflect fewer constituents. The number of contributing contracts for each week is stored in the derived data and documents this expansion.

**Limitations.** The index averages net positioning and ignores gross exposure, spreads and option delta, so it understates crowding where speculators hold large offsetting positions. It covers the most-traded US futures markets but excludes many smaller markets where positioning can be more extreme. The rolling five-year window means the index's baseline shifts as old observations age out. Treat the chart as a broad crowding gauge, not a timing signal.

## How this benchmark is used

**Cross-asset risk regime assessment.** Macro risk desks use the index as a regime label: high readings mark periods when a single narrative has pulled speculators into crowded positions across markets, raising the odds of a correlated unwind. It is one input to risk-budgeting and tail-hedging decisions, not a standalone trigger.

**Asset-class crowding comparison.** The four subindices reveal whether crowding is broad-based (many classes extended) or narrow (one class at an extreme while others are quiet). Comparing the subindices over time shows when positioning-driven risk is building or abating in specific parts of the futures complex.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the current cross-asset speculative crowding?**

As of 4 August 2026, the latest reading is 54.47 index (0–100). That is down 2.4 index points over the past year and above its long-run median of 53.70 index (0–100).

**How often is this benchmark updated?**

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The chart is built from Overall crowding, Equities, FX, Rates and Commodities, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

**What does the cross-asset speculative crowding index measure?**

How extended speculative positioning is across equity, FX, rates and commodity futures at the same time. Each market's primary cohort is ranked against its own trailing five-year history, the distance from the median is averaged within each asset class, and the four classes are equal-weighted into an overall index from 0 to 100.

**What is a high reading?**

The index runs 0 to 100. A reading of 100 means the average constituent is at a historical extreme; 50 means the average is around its 25th or 75th percentile; near 0 means positioning is close to median across the board. Readings in the high 50s and above mark episodes of broad cross-asset crowding.

**How is this different from looking at any single market's positioning?**

A single market only tells you about that market. The index aggregates across 24 positioning benchmarks, so it rises only when many markets are extended at once. A crowded yen position alone moves the index only a little; crowded yen, gold, bonds and equities together move it a lot.

**Does a high reading mean a crash is coming?**

Not directly. High readings mark elevated reversal risk because crowded positions unwind violently when the consensus breaks, but the trigger is usually external. The index is a risk-regime indicator, not a timing signal.

## Methodology

- Formula: 2 × |percentile(primary Net/OI, trailing 260 weeks) − 50|, averaged per asset class, then equal-weighted across the four classes
- Frequency: Weekly
- Sources: Overall crowding (composite:overall) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; Equities (composite:equities) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; FX (composite:fx) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; Rates (composite:rates) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; Commodities (composite:commodities) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE. Data via the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
- Data through: 4 August 2026
- Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/cross-asset-speculative-crowding
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.