# Japan private credit-to-GDP gap | PIER20 benchmarks

Is Japanese private credit running above its long-run trend?

Japan private credit-to-GDP gap tracks BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. It uses quarterly data.

The latest data is from **Q4 2025**. The Credit / GDP reading is **175.06 % of GDP**. The One-sided trend reading is **168.28 % of GDP**. The BIS credit gap reading is **6.78 pp**. The Credit / GDP line is up 0.8 pp over the past year. It is above its long-run median of 173.64 % of GDP.

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit / GDP | 205.94 | 175.06 | 150.04 | 213.56 |
| One-sided trend | 182.19 | 168.28 | 147.95 | 217.67 |
| BIS credit gap | 23.76 | 6.78 | -29.65 | 27.26 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Credit / GDP | One-sided trend | BIS credit gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 162.99 | 148.92 | 14.07 |
| Q2 2020 | 174.24 | 149.91 | 24.33 |
| Q3 2020 | 177.52 | 151.07 | 26.45 |
| Q4 2020 | 179.58 | 152.32 | 27.26 |
| Q1 2021 | 180.27 | 153.58 | 26.69 |
| Q2 2021 | 177.95 | 154.69 | 23.26 |
| Q3 2021 | 177.17 | 155.73 | 21.45 |
| Q4 2021 | 178.25 | 156.80 | 21.45 |
| Q1 2022 | 177.59 | 157.81 | 19.78 |
| Q2 2022 | 178.31 | 158.84 | 19.47 |
| Q3 2022 | 178.52 | 159.85 | 18.67 |
| Q4 2022 | 178.98 | 160.86 | 18.12 |
| Q1 2023 | 177.36 | 161.75 | 15.61 |
| Q2 2023 | 176.16 | 162.56 | 13.60 |
| Q3 2023 | 175.41 | 163.30 | 12.11 |
| Q4 2023 | 174.87 | 163.98 | 10.88 |
| Q1 2024 | 175.30 | 164.68 | 10.63 |
| Q2 2024 | 175.00 | 165.33 | 9.67 |
| Q3 2024 | 173.08 | 165.86 | 7.23 |
| Q4 2024 | 174.28 | 166.43 | 7.85 |
| Q1 2025 | 172.50 | 166.89 | 5.61 |
| Q2 2025 | 171.54 | 167.28 | 4.26 |
| Q3 2025 | 172.88 | 167.73 | 5.15 |
| Q4 2025 | 175.06 | 168.28 | 6.78 |

## How to read this benchmark

**How to read it.** The BIS gap equals private credit to GDP minus its one-sided trend. A positive gap shows that credit is above trend.

## How this benchmark is used

**Why traders watch it.** Credit and equity traders use this benchmark to track Japanese private credit against its long-run trend.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the latest reading for Japan private credit-to-GDP gap?**

The latest data is from Q4 2025. The Credit / GDP reading is 175.06 % of GDP. The One-sided trend reading is 168.28 % of GDP. The BIS credit gap reading is 6.78 pp. The Credit / GDP line is up 0.8 pp over the past year. It is above its long-run median of 173.64 % of GDP.

**How often does this benchmark update?**

The source publishes quarterly data. PIER20 updates the page after each new observation. The chart shows the data date and fetch date.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the data. The methodology section lists each source series.

**Where does the data come from?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the source data. The source table lists each series and its exact link.

## Methodology

- Formula: BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap
- Frequency: Quarterly
- Sources: Credit / GDP (credit-gdp) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.JP.P.A.A; One-sided trend (credit-trend) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.JP.P.A.B; BIS credit gap (credit-gap) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.JP.P.A.C. Data via the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
- Data through: Q4 2025
- Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/japan-private-credit-gap
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.