# S&P 500 vs the Fed balance sheet | PIER20 benchmarks How do stock prices move against the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet? The S&P 500 vs the Fed balance sheet benchmark compares the level of the broad US stock market (SPY) with the total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (WALCL). A stock line above the balance-sheet line means equities have outpaced the growth of Fed assets; below means the balance sheet has grown faster. It is widely used to frame the debate about liquidity-driven equity markets. As of **August 2026**, the S&P 500 (SPY) line stands at **1310.9** and the Fed total assets line at **929.8** (both base = 100 at the shared start). The S&P 500 (SPY) line is up 21.7% over the past year and above its long-run median of 274.7. ## Summary statistics (full history) | Series | First | Latest | Min | Max | |---|---|---|---|---| | S&P 500 (SPY) | 100.0 | 1310.9 | 93.6 | 1310.9 | | Fed total assets | 100.0 | 929.8 | 99.4 | 1233.1 | ## Last 24 readings | Date | S&P 500 (SPY) | Fed total assets | |---|---|---| | Sep 2024 | 934.8 | 978.8 | | Oct 2024 | 964.1 | 969.3 | | Nov 2024 | 987.8 | 957.2 | | Dec 2024 | 1002.5 | 949.6 | | Jan 2025 | 998.2 | 942.1 | | Feb 2025 | 1009.1 | 936.0 | | Mar 2025 | 950.9 | 930.4 | | Apr 2025 | 899.2 | 926.3 | | May 2025 | 973.9 | 922.6 | | Jun 2025 | 1012.0 | 919.4 | | Jul 2025 | 1057.7 | 917.1 | | Aug 2025 | 1077.4 | 913.0 | | Sep 2025 | 1108.2 | 910.2 | | Oct 2025 | 1134.6 | 908.0 | | Nov 2025 | 1136.4 | 904.5 | | Dec 2025 | 1156.6 | 905.3 | | Jan 2026 | 1170.4 | 906.8 | | Feb 2026 | 1165.3 | 911.3 | | Mar 2026 | 1126.1 | 915.8 | | Apr 2026 | 1178.5 | 922.6 | | May 2026 | 1256.6 | 925.0 | | Jun 2026 | 1264.1 | 926.9 | | Jul 2026 | 1270.6 | 928.3 | | Aug 2026 | 1310.9 | 929.8 | ## How to read this benchmark **What a high reading means.** When the SPY line climbs above the WALCL line, equities have outpaced the growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Because quantitative easing expands WALCL directly, periods where the two lines rise together are often described as liquidity-driven markets, though the correlation is not causal: equities also respond to earnings, rates, valuations and risk appetite. **Why the Fed balance sheet as the denominator.** WALCL is total Federal Reserve assets, published weekly: it expands when the Fed buys securities (QE) and contracts when it lets holdings run off (QT). Scaling equities by WALCL asks whether stock prices have kept pace with the stock of central-bank liquidity, the direct test of the 'Fed-driven market' narrative that has dominated post-2008 commentary. **Limitations.** WALCL is a stock, not a flow, so it cannot capture the pace of liquidity injection or withdrawal in real time. The correlation between the two lines is well-documented but not causal: both respond to the same macroeconomic conditions, and equities are also driven by earnings and valuations that the balance sheet does not measure. SPY is a total-return price series, so it reflects reinvested dividends. Treat the chart as context for the liquidity narrative, not investment advice. **Historical extremes.** On the rebased scale (100 at the December 2002 start), the Fed balance sheet peaked near 1,233 in April 2022 at the top of the pandemic-era expansion and has since contracted to roughly 928 as the Fed runs off holdings, while SPY has continued to make new highs above 1,274. The current gap, with equities at highs and the balance sheet below its peak, means the recent rally has happened despite balance-sheet contraction, not because of expansion. That is a direct counterexample to a strict liquidity-driven reading of the market. ## How this benchmark is used **The 'Fed put' / liquidity-driven market debate.** The post-2008 thesis that equity gains are driven by central-bank liquidity rather than fundamentals is the question this chart exists to answer. A tight pairing between the SPY and WALCL lines is read as evidence for the liquidity-driven view; a wide gap with equities above the balance sheet is read as evidence against it. The current gap, with equities at highs and the balance sheet contracting, is the strongest counterexample in the dataset. **QE and QT regime tracking.** Strategists tracking the macro effect of quantitative easing and tightening use this ratio to see whether equity prices are running ahead of or behind the stock of central-bank reserves. The April 2022 WALCL peak marks the end of the pandemic-era expansion and the start of the runoff regime, a widely cited inflection point in the QE-to-QT transition. **Excess-liquidity attribution.** Because both lines are rebased to the same start, the spread between them is a clean measure of how much of the equity rally cannot be attributed to balance-sheet growth alone. Strategists use that residual as a rough proxy for the portion of equity returns driven by earnings, valuations, or non-balance-sheet liquidity rather than direct central-bank expansion. ## Frequently asked questions **What is the current s&P 500 vs the Fed balance sheet?** As of August 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) line stands at 1310.9 and the Fed total assets line at 929.8 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The S&P 500 (SPY) line is up 21.7% over the past year and above its long-run median of 274.7. **How often is this benchmark updated?** This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file. **What data sources does this chart use?** The chart is built from S&P 500 (SPY) and Fed total assets, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance. **Does a bigger Fed balance sheet cause higher stock prices?** The correlation is well-documented but not causal. Both the Fed balance sheet and equity prices respond to the same macroeconomic conditions, and equities are also driven by earnings, valuations and risk appetite that the balance sheet does not measure. Notably, SPY has continued to make new highs while the Fed balance sheet has contracted below its April 2022 peak, which is hard to square with a strict liquidity-driven reading. **What is the highest and lowest each line has reached?** On the rebased scale (100 at December 2002), the Fed balance sheet peaked near 1,233 in April 2022 and has since contracted to roughly 928. SPY bottomed near 94 in early 2003 and has risen above 1,274 at its latest reading, its all-time high on this series. **How is this different from S&P 500 vs M2?** This chart compares equities to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (WALCL), which expands and contracts with QE and QT. Total US stock market vs M2 compares equities to the broad money supply (M2SL), which the public and banks create through deposits and lending. The two track different forms of liquidity: central-bank reserves vs broad money in circulation. **Why compare stocks to the Fed balance sheet instead of inflation?** CPI measures consumer prices; the Fed balance sheet measures central-bank liquidity. Stocks vs CPI shows purchasing-power preservation; stocks vs the balance sheet tests the 'Fed-driven market' narrative directly. PIER20 publishes both perspectives across the liquidity cluster. ## Methodology - Formula: Index SPY and WALCL (both monthly avg) to 100 at the shared start - Frequency: Monthly - Sources: S&P 500 (SPY) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY; Fed total assets (WALCL) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL. Data via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance. - Data through: August 2026 - Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026 ## Related benchmarks - [Total US stock market vs M2 money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/total-equity-vs-m2) - [Bitcoin vs M2 money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/bitcoin-vs-m2) - [Bitcoin and gold vs the money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/bitcoin-vs-gold-m2) - [Gold price vs US federal debt](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/gold-vs-debt) Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/sp500-vs-fed-balance-sheet Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.