# Total US stock market vs M2 money supply | PIER20 benchmarks

Has the broad US stock market grown faster than the money supply?

The total US stock market vs M2 benchmark compares the level of the broad US equity market, tracked by the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), with the US M2 money supply published by the Federal Reserve. A rising line means stock prices are growing faster than the amount of money in the economy; a falling line means money supply is outpacing stocks.

As of **June 2026**, the Total US market (VTI) line stands at **1018.1** and the M2 money supply line at **446.8** (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Total US market (VTI) line is up 25.4% over the past year and above its long-run median of 211.3.

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total US market (VTI) | 100.0 | 1018.1 | 72.1 | 1018.1 |
| M2 money supply | 100.0 | 446.8 | 100.0 | 446.8 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Total US market (VTI) | M2 money supply |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2024 | 738.2 | 407.1 |
| Aug 2024 | 731.2 | 408.9 |
| Sep 2024 | 751.4 | 410.5 |
| Oct 2024 | 775.3 | 411.7 |
| Nov 2024 | 799.0 | 414.0 |
| Dec 2024 | 810.1 | 414.6 |
| Jan 2025 | 805.8 | 415.6 |
| Feb 2025 | 813.2 | 416.9 |
| Mar 2025 | 762.9 | 418.4 |
| Apr 2025 | 720.2 | 420.1 |
| May 2025 | 781.3 | 421.4 |
| Jun 2025 | 811.8 | 423.4 |
| Jul 2025 | 848.9 | 425.0 |
| Aug 2025 | 864.6 | 426.3 |
| Sep 2025 | 891.2 | 427.9 |
| Oct 2025 | 911.3 | 429.3 |
| Nov 2025 | 910.3 | 429.9 |
| Dec 2025 | 928.2 | 431.4 |
| Jan 2026 | 941.6 | 432.6 |
| Feb 2026 | 937.2 | 436.5 |
| Mar 2026 | 905.2 | 437.6 |
| Apr 2026 | 948.1 | 440.0 |
| May 2026 | 1008.0 | 444.9 |
| Jun 2026 | 1018.1 | 446.8 |

## How to read this benchmark

**What a high reading means.** When the index climbs, equity prices are expanding faster than the money available to sustain them, a pattern historically associated with late-cycle markets such as the late 1990s and 2020-2021. When it falls, either stocks are correcting or the money supply is growing faster than equity prices, periods that have often coincided with accumulation.

**Why M2 as the denominator.** M2 is the Federal Reserve's broad money measure, covering cash, checking, savings and small time deposits. Stock prices tend to rise when the money stock grows, so comparing equities to M2 strips out the part of that rise that reflects a larger pool of dollars. What is left measures whether equities are outpacing monetary expansion in real terms.

**Limitations.** VTI is a market-cap-weighted price series, so the largest companies dominate the numerator and dividends are only partially reflected. M2 is a domestic measure, while a large share of US corporate revenue is earned abroad. Treat the index as context for valuation regimes, not a timing signal. This benchmark is research software output, not investment advice.

**Historical extremes.** The equity-to-money ratio bottomed at roughly 48 in March 2009, the trough of the global financial crisis, when equities collapsed while M2 kept growing. It climbed through the 2010s and peaked near 149 in late 2021 at the height of the post-pandemic stimulus rally, then fell back to around 122 by September 2022 as the 2022 reset took equities lower. The May 2026 reading is the highest in the series' history, exceeding the 2021 peak, meaning broad US equities are more extended against the money supply than at any prior point in the dataset. Each prior extreme eventually reverted toward the long-run median through a mix of equity declines, money-supply growth, or both.

## How this benchmark is used

**Cousin of the Buffett indicator.** The Buffett indicator compares total US market capitalisation to GDP and is the most widely cited valuation-regime framework for the broad equity market. This ratio is a close cousin that swaps the denominator from economic output to the money stock, so it asks the same late-cycle question through a monetary lens. Strategists who already reference the Buffett indicator use the M2 variant as a cross-check on whether elevated valuations reflect real stretching or faster money growth alone.

**Testing the 'liquidity-driven market' thesis.** The post-2008 narrative that equities rise because central banks print money is tested directly by this ratio. A VTI line tracking the M2 line means equities have risen only in step with money creation; a line well above M2 means equities have decoupled upward. The May 2026 reading, the highest in the series, is the strongest version of that decoupling on record.

**Valuation regime classification.** The ratio is used as a regime label alongside the Buffett indicator and the Shiller CAPE: a reading near the long-run median is associated with accumulation phases, while readings well above it are associated with late-cycle stretching. Like those frameworks it is descriptive of regime, not predictive of timing.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the current total US stock market vs M2 money supply?**

As of June 2026, the Total US market (VTI) line stands at 1018.1 and the M2 money supply line at 446.8 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Total US market (VTI) line is up 25.4% over the past year and above its long-run median of 211.3.

**How often is this benchmark updated?**

This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The chart is built from Total US market (VTI) and M2 money supply, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.

**Has the stock market grown faster than the money supply?**

Over the full history of this series, yes: the index has risen well above its starting value of 100, meaning broad US equities appreciated several times over relative to the M2 money supply.

**Why compare stocks to M2 instead of inflation?**

CPI measures consumer prices; M2 measures the money stock itself. Stocks vs CPI shows purchasing-power preservation; stocks vs M2 shows whether equity growth is outpacing monetary expansion. PIER20 publishes both: see Stock prices vs consumer prices.

**What is the highest and lowest the equity-to-money ratio has reached?**

Across the series, which begins in June 2001, the ratio peaked at roughly 227 in May 2026 (the most recent observation) and bottomed near 48 in March 2009 during the global financial crisis. The late-2021 stimulus rally took the ratio to around 149 before the 2022 reset pulled it back toward 122.

**How is this different from the Buffett indicator?**

The Buffett indicator compares total US stock-market capitalisation to GDP: the dollar value of all shares outstanding over the dollar value of all economic output. This benchmark uses a price index (VTI) rather than full market cap, and uses M2 money supply rather than GDP, so it asks whether equity prices are outpacing the money stock rather than whether the market's value exceeds the economy's output. The two move broadly together but answer different questions and use different denominators (a money aggregate vs a flow of goods and services).

**Does a high reading mean a crash is coming?**

Not by itself. A high reading shows equities are extended relative to the money supply, and prior peaks (late 1990s, late 2021) were followed by periods of poor or negative equity returns as the ratio reverted toward its long-run median. But the reversion has come through equity declines, money-supply growth, or a mix of both, and the timing has varied widely. This benchmark is context for valuation regimes, not a market-timing signal, and PIER20 provides research software rather than investment advice.

## Methodology

- Formula: Index VTI (monthly avg adjusted close) and M2SL to 100 at the shared start
- Frequency: Monthly
- Sources: Total US market (VTI) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI; M2 money supply (M2SL) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL. Data via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.
- Data through: June 2026
- Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

## Related benchmarks

- [Bitcoin vs M2 money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/bitcoin-vs-m2)
- [Bitcoin and gold vs the money supply](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/bitcoin-vs-gold-m2)
- [Gold price vs US federal debt](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/gold-vs-debt)
- [Nonfinancial corporate equity / M2](https://pier20.com/benchmarks/us-corporate-equity-to-m2)

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/total-equity-vs-m2
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.