# Treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread | PIER20 benchmarks

Is speculative positioning leaning toward the short or the long end of the Treasury curve?

The Treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread takes the Leveraged Funds Net/OI for two tenor points (2-year and 10-year Treasury futures) and subtracts the long-end reading from the short-end one. A positive spread means speculators are positioned for curve steepening (long the front, short the long). A negative spread means curve flattening bets dominate. The spread isolates the curve view from the outright duration view each page carries.

As of **4 August 2026**, the latest readings are 2Y leveraged Net/OI at **-30.32 % of OI** and 10Y leveraged Net/OI at **-42.38 % of OI**. The 2Y leveraged Net/OI line is up 15.9 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -5.20 % of OI.

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y leveraged Net/OI | 38.26 | -30.32 | -59.76 | 42.42 |
| 10Y leveraged Net/OI | -6.07 | -42.38 | -48.53 | 29.08 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | 2Y leveraged Net/OI | 10Y leveraged Net/OI |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2026 | -44.54 | -33.31 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | -45.61 | -35.17 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | -41.66 | -35.29 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | -44.04 | -36.65 |
| 24 Mar 2026 | -48.20 | -35.81 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | -45.92 | -37.95 |
| 7 Apr 2026 | -45.64 | -38.56 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | -44.26 | -38.75 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -44.84 | -39.13 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -44.71 | -39.00 |
| 5 May 2026 | -42.85 | -37.32 |
| 12 May 2026 | -40.61 | -33.36 |
| 19 May 2026 | -38.04 | -33.48 |
| 26 May 2026 | -35.73 | -32.07 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -41.86 | -36.88 |
| 9 Jun 2026 | -39.31 | -37.70 |
| 16 Jun 2026 | -39.61 | -39.11 |
| 23 Jun 2026 | -39.40 | -36.78 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | -38.95 | -37.53 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | -39.38 | -37.70 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | -37.44 | -39.35 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | -36.80 | -39.16 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | -35.50 | -40.57 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | -30.32 | -42.38 |

## How to read this benchmark

**What a positive or negative spread means.** A positive spread means leveraged funds hold more bullish (or less bearish) positions at the 2Y than at the 10Y, a steepener bias. A negative spread means the opposite: funds are positioned for curve flattening. Because rates positioning is expressed in futures prices, net long means long bond prices (lower yields), so the spread must be read with the yield/price inversion in mind. A positive spread here means the market is positioned for 2Y rates to fall faster than 10Y rates, not rise.

**Why the two tenor points as the comparator.** 2Y and 10Y are the most-traded Treasury futures and anchor the yield curve's most-watched spread. Comparing the two strips the outright duration from both: if speculators are bearish across the curve, the spread is flat; if they are bearish on the long end but flat or long at the front, the spread turns positive, and vice versa.

**Limitations.** The spread conflates two contracts with different open-interest scales, so magnitudes are not truly comparable in pp terms. It measures positions, not expectations of future spreads. Treat the chart as context for curve positioning, not investment advice.

## How this benchmark is used

**Curve-steepener positioning.** Treasury curve steepeners and flatteners are a core macro trade. The spread between the 2Y and 10Y positioning lines shows which side the speculative consensus is on (a steepener bias or a flattening bias) without having to compare two separate pages.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the current treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread?**

As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are 2Y leveraged Net/OI at -30.32 % of OI and 10Y leveraged Net/OI at -42.38 % of OI. The 2Y leveraged Net/OI line is up 15.9 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -5.20 % of OI.

**How often is this benchmark updated?**

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The chart is built from 2Y leveraged Net/OI and 10Y leveraged Net/OI, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

**How does this differ from reading the two contract pages separately?**

The two pages each show the outright positioning for one tenor. This spread subtracts the long-end reading from the short-end one, so it gives the curve position directly: the difference between the two lines on a single chart, not two pages viewed side-by-side.

## Methodology

- Formula: spread = 2Y Leveraged Funds Net/OI − 10Y Leveraged Funds Net/OI, in percentage points of OI
- Frequency: Weekly
- Sources: 2Y leveraged Net/OI (treasury-spread:2y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=042601; 10Y leveraged Net/OI (treasury-spread:10y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=043602. Data via the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
- Data through: 4 August 2026
- Last refreshed: 04 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/treasury-2y-10y-positioning-spread
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.