# Treasury cohort divergence | PIER20 benchmarks How wide is the positioning gap between asset managers and leveraged funds across Treasury futures? Treasury cohort divergence measures the gap between Asset Manager and Leveraged Funds Net/OI across the front-end (2Y), the belly (10Y) and the long-end (30Y) of the Treasury curve. Asset managers hold structural duration to match liabilities and are typically net-long, and leveraged funds express more tactical views. A wide positive divergence means asset managers are positioned much more bullishly than leveraged funds: the institutional-versus-speculative gap. It is a structural-versus-tactical gauge for the rates complex. As of **4 August 2026**, the latest reading is **70.03 pp of OI**. That is down 7.73 pp of OI over the past year and above its long-run median of 20.79 pp of OI. ## Summary statistics (full history) | Series | First | Latest | Min | Max | |---|---|---|---|---| | Overall divergence | 6.65 | 70.03 | -22.01 | 82.44 | | 2Y divergence | -56.57 | 68.80 | -62.27 | 112.57 | | 10Y divergence | 17.13 | 91.66 | -53.58 | 95.80 | | 30Y divergence | 59.37 | 49.62 | -3.53 | 80.54 | ## Last 24 readings | Date | Overall divergence | 2Y divergence | 10Y divergence | 30Y divergence | |---|---|---|---|---| | 24 Feb 2026 | 66.93 | 88.88 | 69.51 | 42.39 | | 3 Mar 2026 | 69.91 | 91.47 | 73.56 | 44.71 | | 10 Mar 2026 | 66.76 | 86.45 | 73.70 | 40.12 | | 17 Mar 2026 | 68.87 | 90.69 | 76.19 | 39.71 | | 24 Mar 2026 | 73.73 | 102.76 | 75.33 | 43.11 | | 31 Mar 2026 | 69.75 | 98.69 | 79.98 | 30.57 | | 7 Apr 2026 | 70.33 | 98.01 | 81.84 | 31.14 | | 14 Apr 2026 | 69.58 | 94.51 | 81.41 | 32.81 | | 21 Apr 2026 | 70.15 | 94.35 | 81.33 | 34.78 | | 28 Apr 2026 | 69.87 | 94.11 | 81.00 | 34.49 | | 5 May 2026 | 68.87 | 89.68 | 77.14 | 39.79 | | 12 May 2026 | 65.16 | 84.73 | 69.50 | 41.26 | | 19 May 2026 | 65.82 | 81.38 | 72.34 | 43.72 | | 26 May 2026 | 60.17 | 75.87 | 65.17 | 39.48 | | 2 Jun 2026 | 69.60 | 87.08 | 81.10 | 40.62 | | 9 Jun 2026 | 69.10 | 83.25 | 83.64 | 40.41 | | 16 Jun 2026 | 70.63 | 82.00 | 85.78 | 44.10 | | 23 Jun 2026 | 71.40 | 83.86 | 82.19 | 48.14 | | 30 Jun 2026 | 70.20 | 82.60 | 82.84 | 45.16 | | 7 Jul 2026 | 70.92 | 81.79 | 83.34 | 47.64 | | 14 Jul 2026 | 71.81 | 79.38 | 86.90 | 49.14 | | 21 Jul 2026 | 72.55 | 78.80 | 87.28 | 51.56 | | 28 Jul 2026 | 72.87 | 77.37 | 89.73 | 51.50 | | 4 Aug 2026 | 70.03 | 68.80 | 91.66 | 49.62 | ## How to read this benchmark **What a wide or narrow divergence means.** A wide divergence (asset managers longer than leveraged funds) describes the normal state of the Treasury futures market: asset managers need duration, leveraged funds take the other side. When the divergence narrows, both cohorts are closer together in their positioning, which typically happens when leveraged funds turn less bearish as the macro picture shifts. An unusually narrow or negative divergence means speculators are positioned more bullishly than institutions, a rare state worth noting. **Why the three tenors as the components.** 2Y, 10Y and 30Y capture the curve from front to long end. Cohort dynamics differ by tenor. The front-end divergence is often driven by SOFR-rate expectations, the long-end by term-premium and inflation views. Averaging the three gives the broad cohort split. **Limitations.** The divergence does not distinguish whether the gap widened from asset managers buying or leveraged funds selling, and the driver matters. It is measured in percentage points of OI, so contracts with different OI scales are compared. Treat the chart as context for the institutional-versus-speculative positioning gap, not investment advice. ## How this benchmark is used **Duration norm vs exception.** The structural norm is positive divergence: asset managers long, leveraged funds short. A negative or near-zero reading is the exception that flags a positioning regime shift, often ahead of or during a risk-off move. ## Frequently asked questions **What is the current treasury cohort divergence?** As of 4 August 2026, the latest reading is 70.03 pp of OI. That is down 7.73 pp of OI over the past year and above its long-run median of 20.79 pp of OI. **How often is this benchmark updated?** This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file. **What data sources does this chart use?** The chart is built from Overall divergence, 2Y divergence, 10Y divergence and 30Y divergence, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. **What does a negative divergence mean?** Leveraged funds are positioned more long (or less short) than asset managers across the curve: speculators are more bullish than the structural holders. It is unusual and has historically marked moments of acute rate-market dislocation. ## Methodology - Formula: divergence_i = AssetManager Net/OI_i − Leveraged Funds Net/OI_i; overall = equal-weight mean - Frequency: Weekly - Sources: Overall divergence (divergence:overall) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 2Y divergence (divergence:2y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 10Y divergence (divergence:10y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 30Y divergence (divergence:30y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE. Data via the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. - Data through: 4 August 2026 - Last refreshed: 04 Aug 2026 Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/treasury-cohort-divergence Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.