# Treasury duration crowding | PIER20 benchmarks

How crowded is speculative positioning across the five Treasury futures tenors?

Treasury duration crowding aggregates the extremity of Leveraged Funds Net/OI across all five Treasury futures tenors (2Y, 5Y, 10Y, Ultra-10Y and 30Y) into one gauge. Each tenor is ranked against its own trailing five-year history, and crowding is twice the distance of that percentile from 50. A reading of 100 means the average tenor is at a historical extreme; 0 means positioning is at the median across the board. It is a crowded-positioning gauge specific to the rate complex.

As of **4 August 2026**, the latest reading is **48.89 index (0-100)**. That is down 29.3% over the past year and below its long-run median of 59.21 index (0-100).

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duration crowding |  | 48.89 | 19.52 | 98.35 |
| 2Y |  | 36.78 | 0.77 | 99.00 |
| 5Y |  | 9.96 | 0.00 | 99.00 |
| 10Y |  | 86.59 | 0.00 | 99.00 |
| Ultra-10Y |  | 85.82 | 1.53 | 99.00 |
| 30Y |  | 25.29 | 0.00 | 99.00 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Duration crowding | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | Ultra-10Y | 30Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2026 | 36.17 | 30.65 | 31.42 | 44.44 | 26.82 | 47.51 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | 37.70 | 45.21 | 52.11 | 49.04 | 4.60 | 37.55 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 46.90 | 24.52 | 50.57 | 49.04 | 32.18 | 78.16 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | 50.57 | 28.35 | 38.31 | 52.87 | 42.91 | 90.42 |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 55.48 | 65.13 | 25.29 | 49.81 | 59.77 | 77.39 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 56.12 | 49.04 | 25.29 | 60.54 | 46.74 | 99.00 |
| 7 Apr 2026 | 56.09 | 45.21 | 20.69 | 64.37 | 51.34 | 98.85 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | 46.44 | 26.05 | 19.92 | 64.37 | 23.75 | 98.08 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 43.83 | 31.42 | 19.16 | 65.90 | 5.36 | 97.32 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 42.91 | 30.65 | 19.16 | 64.37 | 3.83 | 96.55 |
| 5 May 2026 | 38.93 | 19.92 | 17.62 | 52.87 | 18.39 | 85.82 |
| 12 May 2026 | 30.04 | 13.03 | 15.33 | 36.78 | 4.60 | 80.46 |
| 19 May 2026 | 25.44 | 3.83 | 7.66 | 37.55 | 8.43 | 69.73 |
| 26 May 2026 | 29.73 | 13.79 | 7.66 | 29.12 | 13.03 | 85.06 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | 39.39 | 18.39 | 16.86 | 49.81 | 20.69 | 91.19 |
| 9 Jun 2026 | 36.17 | 8.43 | 16.86 | 55.94 | 9.20 | 90.42 |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 36.32 | 9.96 | 15.33 | 65.13 | 4.60 | 86.59 |
| 23 Jun 2026 | 27.59 | 7.66 | 13.03 | 47.51 | 3.07 | 66.67 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 32.03 | 3.83 | 8.43 | 51.34 | 29.89 | 66.67 |
| 7 Jul 2026 | 34.64 | 6.90 | 13.79 | 55.17 | 57.47 | 39.85 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 36.93 | 6.13 | 12.26 | 65.90 | 71.26 | 29.12 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | 33.41 | 9.20 | 9.96 | 65.13 | 72.80 | 9.96 |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 38.62 | 22.22 | 4.60 | 72.03 | 78.93 | 15.33 |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 48.89 | 36.78 | 9.96 | 86.59 | 85.82 | 25.29 |

## How to read this benchmark

**What a high or low reading means.** A high crowding reading means rate positioning is extended across tenors, a consensus position that is vulnerable to reversal if the rate narrative shifts. The index is structurally similar to the cross-asset crowding page but confines itself to rates, so it is the specific read a rates desk needs: is the duration trade crowded, or is the crowding elsewhere?

**Why equal-weight the tenors.** Each tenor has a different contract size and open-interest scale, so raw Net/OI ranges differ. The extremity score puts every tenor on the same 0–100 scale, and the mean gives each an equal voice: the 2Y and the 30Y count equally in the overall crowding reading.

**Limitations.** Crowding is a relative measure against each tenor's own history, so an absolute small position that is extreme for its contract can read as crowded. The five-year trailing window shifts as history ages out. Treat the chart as a rate-positioning breadth gauge, not investment advice.

## How this benchmark is used

**Rate consensus fragility.** When the index reaches high levels, rate positioning is one-sided across tenors, the setup that produces outsized reversals when macro data or Fed communications break the consensus.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the current treasury duration crowding?**

As of 4 August 2026, the latest reading is 48.89 index (0-100). That is down 29.3% over the past year and below its long-run median of 59.21 index (0-100).

**How often is this benchmark updated?**

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The chart is built from Duration crowding, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, Ultra-10Y and 30Y, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

**How is this different from the cross-asset crowding page?**

Cross-asset crowding averages across equities, FX, rates and commodities. It answers whether speculation is broadly crowded. This page isolates rates, so a crowded duration trade in a quiet equity/fx complex shows up here but not there.

## Methodology

- Formula: extremity_i = 2 × |trailingPercentile260(NetOI_i) − 50|; crowding = equal-weight mean of extremity_i
- Frequency: Weekly
- Sources: Duration crowding (duration:overall) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 2Y (duration:2y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 5Y (duration:5y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 10Y (duration:10y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; Ultra-10Y (duration:u10y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE; 30Y (duration:30y) https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/stories/s/r4w3-av2u?code=COMPOSITE. Data via the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
- Data through: 4 August 2026
- Last refreshed: 04 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/treasury-duration-crowding
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.