# UK private credit-to-GDP gap | PIER20 benchmarks

Is UK private credit running above its long-run trend?

UK private credit-to-GDP gap tracks BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. It uses quarterly data.

The latest data is from **Q4 2025**. The Credit / GDP reading is **132.58 % of GDP**. The One-sided trend reading is **150.40 % of GDP**. The BIS credit gap reading is **-17.82 pp**. The Credit / GDP line is down 5.1 pp over the past year. It is below its long-run median of 154.23 % of GDP.

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit / GDP | 112.23 | 132.58 | 107.78 | 185.19 |
| One-sided trend | 89.13 | 150.40 | 89.13 | 187.99 |
| BIS credit gap | 23.10 | -17.82 | -27.98 | 23.10 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Credit / GDP | One-sided trend | BIS credit gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 158.09 | 170.08 | -11.99 |
| Q2 2020 | 166.92 | 169.98 | -3.06 |
| Q3 2020 | 170.26 | 170.07 | 0.19 |
| Q4 2020 | 173.78 | 170.34 | 3.44 |
| Q1 2021 | 174.82 | 170.67 | 4.15 |
| Q2 2021 | 169.97 | 170.71 | -0.74 |
| Q3 2021 | 167.26 | 170.61 | -3.35 |
| Q4 2021 | 163.37 | 170.29 | -6.92 |
| Q1 2022 | 157.74 | 169.67 | -11.93 |
| Q2 2022 | 154.35 | 168.88 | -14.53 |
| Q3 2022 | 152.40 | 168.00 | -15.60 |
| Q4 2022 | 149.34 | 166.99 | -17.65 |
| Q1 2023 | 145.34 | 165.78 | -20.44 |
| Q2 2023 | 141.58 | 164.40 | -22.82 |
| Q3 2023 | 140.73 | 163.01 | -22.28 |
| Q4 2023 | 139.81 | 161.62 | -21.80 |
| Q1 2024 | 140.41 | 160.30 | -19.89 |
| Q2 2024 | 140.06 | 159.00 | -18.94 |
| Q3 2024 | 139.41 | 157.71 | -18.30 |
| Q4 2024 | 137.67 | 156.37 | -18.70 |
| Q1 2025 | 132.85 | 154.81 | -21.96 |
| Q2 2025 | 132.16 | 153.26 | -21.10 |
| Q3 2025 | 133.27 | 151.82 | -18.55 |
| Q4 2025 | 132.58 | 150.40 | -17.82 |

## How to read this benchmark

**How to read it.** The BIS gap equals private credit to GDP minus its one-sided trend. A positive gap shows that credit is above trend.

## How this benchmark is used

**Why traders watch it.** Credit and equity traders use this benchmark to track U.K. private credit against its long-run trend.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the latest reading for UK private credit-to-GDP gap?**

The latest data is from Q4 2025. The Credit / GDP reading is 132.58 % of GDP. The One-sided trend reading is 150.40 % of GDP. The BIS credit gap reading is -17.82 pp. The Credit / GDP line is down 5.1 pp over the past year. It is below its long-run median of 154.23 % of GDP.

**How often does this benchmark update?**

The source publishes quarterly data. PIER20 updates the page after each new observation. The chart shows the data date and fetch date.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the data. The methodology section lists each source series.

**Where does the data come from?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the source data. The source table lists each series and its exact link.

## Methodology

- Formula: BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap
- Frequency: Quarterly
- Sources: Credit / GDP (credit-gdp) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.GB.P.A.A; One-sided trend (credit-trend) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.GB.P.A.B; BIS credit gap (credit-gap) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.GB.P.A.C. Data via the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
- Data through: Q4 2025
- Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/uk-private-credit-gap
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.