# U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap | PIER20 benchmarks

Is U.S. private credit running above its long-run trend?

U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap tracks BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. It uses quarterly data.

The latest data is from **Q4 2025**. The Credit / GDP reading is **140.25 % of GDP**. The One-sided trend reading is **151.79 % of GDP**. The BIS credit gap reading is **-11.54 pp**. The Credit / GDP line is down 2.3 pp over the past year. It is below its long-run median of 150.48 % of GDP.

## Summary statistics (full history)

| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit / GDP | 125.47 | 140.25 | 118.16 | 171.97 |
| One-sided trend | 120.66 | 151.79 | 120.66 | 169.91 |
| BIS credit gap | 4.82 | -11.54 | -16.93 | 11.63 |

## Last 24 readings

| Date | Credit / GDP | One-sided trend | BIS credit gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 156.03 | 158.67 | -2.64 |
| Q2 2020 | 161.79 | 158.90 | 2.88 |
| Q3 2020 | 162.82 | 159.19 | 3.64 |
| Q4 2020 | 164.11 | 159.53 | 4.58 |
| Q1 2021 | 164.39 | 159.87 | 4.52 |
| Q2 2021 | 162.41 | 160.10 | 2.31 |
| Q3 2021 | 160.65 | 160.22 | 0.43 |
| Q4 2021 | 159.28 | 160.26 | -0.98 |
| Q1 2022 | 158.00 | 160.23 | -2.23 |
| Q2 2022 | 156.79 | 160.13 | -3.34 |
| Q3 2022 | 155.02 | 159.93 | -4.91 |
| Q4 2022 | 153.44 | 159.65 | -6.21 |
| Q1 2023 | 151.65 | 159.28 | -7.62 |
| Q2 2023 | 150.08 | 158.83 | -8.75 |
| Q3 2023 | 148.47 | 158.30 | -9.83 |
| Q4 2023 | 147.07 | 157.71 | -10.64 |
| Q1 2024 | 146.07 | 157.08 | -11.02 |
| Q2 2024 | 145.16 | 156.42 | -11.26 |
| Q3 2024 | 144.54 | 155.75 | -11.20 |
| Q4 2024 | 142.52 | 154.98 | -12.46 |
| Q1 2025 | 141.59 | 154.18 | -12.59 |
| Q2 2025 | 141.02 | 153.38 | -12.36 |
| Q3 2025 | 140.59 | 152.58 | -11.99 |
| Q4 2025 | 140.25 | 151.79 | -11.54 |

## How to read this benchmark

**How to read it.** The BIS gap equals private credit to GDP minus its one-sided trend. A positive gap shows that credit is above trend.

## How this benchmark is used

**Why traders watch it.** Credit and equity traders use this benchmark to track U.S. private credit against its long-run trend.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the latest reading for U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap?**

The latest data is from Q4 2025. The Credit / GDP reading is 140.25 % of GDP. The One-sided trend reading is 151.79 % of GDP. The BIS credit gap reading is -11.54 pp. The Credit / GDP line is down 2.3 pp over the past year. It is below its long-run median of 150.48 % of GDP.

**How often does this benchmark update?**

The source publishes quarterly data. PIER20 updates the page after each new observation. The chart shows the data date and fetch date.

**What data sources does this chart use?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the data. The methodology section lists each source series.

**Where does the data come from?**

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the source data. The source table lists each series and its exact link.

## Methodology

- Formula: BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap
- Frequency: Quarterly
- Sources: Credit / GDP (credit-gdp) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.US.P.A.A; One-sided trend (credit-trend) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.US.P.A.B; BIS credit gap (credit-gap) https://stats.bis.org/api/v1/data/WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.US.P.A.C. Data via the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
- Data through: Q4 2025
- Last refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

Full interactive chart: https://pier20.com/benchmarks/us-private-credit-gap
Disclaimer: research software output, not investment advice.