What a rising <1Y share means
A rising near-term share means a mounting roll-over wave. More debt is coming due and the market must absorb the supply. The <1Y share has risen meaningfully since 2022 as the Treasury shortened issuance.
| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 year share | 26.51 | 33.33 | 22.90 | 37.02 |
| 1-3Y share | 22.76 | 21.00 | 20.14 | 25.85 |
| 3-5Y share | 18.03 | 13.63 | 13.46 | 18.41 |
| 5-10Y share | 21.57 | 13.75 | 13.65 | 21.80 |
| 10Y+ share | 11.13 | 18.28 | 11.02 | 18.43 |
bucketShare = outstandingInBucket / totalMarketableOutstanding x 100; topTwo = sum of the two largest bucket sharesOutstanding marketable Treasury securities grouped by remaining term into five buckets: <1Y, 1-3Y, 3-5Y, 5-10Y, 10Y+. Each as a percentage of total marketable outstanding, from the MSPD Table 3, monthly. 1Y changes and top-two concentration are materialised for the rail only.
As of July 2026, the latest reading is 33.33%. That is up 1.4 pp over the past year and above its long-run median of 27.75%.
A rising near-term share means a mounting roll-over wave. More debt is coming due and the market must absorb the supply. The <1Y share has risen meaningfully since 2022 as the Treasury shortened issuance.
The wall is a snapshot. Securities are issued and redeemed continuously between MSPD dates. Treat the chart as context for Treasury roll-over risk, not investment advice.
TBAC's presentation at each refunding includes the maturity wall as a supply backdrop.
As of July 2026, the latest reading is 33.33%. That is up 1.4 pp over the past year and above its long-run median of 27.75%.
This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from <1 year share, 1-3Y share, 3-5Y share, 5-10Y share, 10Y+ share, <1 year 1Y change, 1-3Y 1Y change, 3-5Y 1Y change, 5-10Y 1Y change, 10Y+ 1Y change and Top-two share, sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data.
The under-one-year bucket is the acute roll-over. The volume the market must absorb in the next year.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.