Reports
Market research essays with the working shown
Long-form research from the desk. Every essay names its methods and its data, shows the parts that did not work, and carries a methods note that defends it.
Featured · housing
Mortgage lock-in runs on two clocks
The number of mortgages below 4% fell at 6.2% a year from 2022 Q1 to 2026 Q1, even while the rate gap stayed open. That steady decline still leaves a long wait for lock-in to fade.
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index-effect
DAX additions lost ground before rebalancing. Deletions gained.
Across 38 DAX membership changes from 2015 to 2023, additions underperformed and deletions outperformed from the next open after announcement to the rebalancing close. Those moves followed months of relative strength in additions and weakness in deletions.
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Housing's affordability strain excludes buyers before it forces owners to sellEssayNarrower mortgage spreads barely improved housing affordabilityEssay
Reports state results · methods notes defend them · every chart links to its benchmark series