What a widening or narrowing balance means
A positive net-crude-imports reading means the U.S. still relies on foreign crude barrels on net to balance the market; a negative reading means it is a net crude exporter that week. After the 2015 export-ban repeal, crude exports rose and net crude imports narrowed from multi-mb/d levels, but crude-only trade has remained a net-import account in almost every week of this sample. The rare net-export prints are exceptions, not a 2019. 20 regime. Because U.S. crude quality differs from what Gulf Coast refineries process, both flows run at the same time. Imports of heavy grades, exports of light shale barrels. So the balance, not either flow alone, is the crude trade signal.