| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. crude production | 8634.00 | 13804.00 | 3813.00 | 13862.00 |
| Five-year average | 8740.67 | 12515.00 | 4640.27 | 12515.00 |
seasonalAverage(t) = mean of same EIA week (±1 week) in the five complete years before tWeekly U.S. field production of crude oil (EIA series WCRFPUS2), plotted against the five-year seasonal average only for the same calendar week. The reference uses the same EIA week number (plus or minus one week) in the five full calendar years before each observation. The current year never enters its own baseline. Each reference year contributes the mean of its tolerated observations. The average line starts once a five-year window exists.
As of 31 July 2026, the latest readings are U.S. crude production at 13804.00 Thousand Barrels per Day and Five-year average at 12515.00 Thousand Barrels per Day. The U.S. crude production line is up 3.9% over the past year and above its long-run median of 7261.00 Thousand Barrels per Day.
A reading above the five-year average means the U.S. is producing more crude than it did in the same week of recent years. A supply-side headwind for prices, all else equal. A reading below the band flags lost supply: winter freeze-offs in Texas, Gulf of America hurricane shut-ins, or a pullback in drilling. Because production is the supply line of the U.S. balance, the level versus the seasonal norm is the first question the weekly report answers.
Energy series move with the calendar year. A raw level cannot say if the market is tight or slack. This page ranks each week against the same week in the five full years before it. A July reading is judged against prior Julys, not against the full year. The baseline uses only earlier years. The current year never enters its own baseline. The rule allows one week of tolerance when holidays shift the report week.
For each date, the reference is the same EIA week number (plus or minus one week) in the five full calendar years before it. Each reference year adds one value (the mean of its tolerated observations). The five-year average uses those yearly values. This page plots the average only. The average line starts once a five-year window exists and rolls forward.
The five-year average moves as history rolls forward. Source revisions can move history. Crude production is one input to the market balance. Prices also move on the weekly surprise versus expectations, not on the level alone. Treat the chart as context for supply and demand conditions, not investment advice.
Weekly production against its seasonal band is how the market tracks whether U.S. output is still growing. The shale-era records of 2023-24 were each tested against the five-year line. Productivity gains and drilling pullbacks show up here weeks before monthly EIA data confirms them, which is why the weekly number moves WTI.
This page uses a same-week rule over five full prior years. It allows one week of tolerance. The current year is excluded. It plots the seasonal average only. Compare the reading to the average line, not to a min or max range.
As of 31 July 2026, the latest readings are U.S. crude production at 13804.00 Thousand Barrels per Day and Five-year average at 12515.00 Thousand Barrels per Day. The U.S. crude production line is up 3.9% over the past year and above its long-run median of 7261.00 Thousand Barrels per Day.
This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from U.S. crude production and Five-year average, sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The percentile cell ranks the latest reading against the full sample. The 100th percentile is the highest on record. The 0th is the lowest. This page charts the five-year seasonal average only. Read extremes from the full history and the percentile cell.
Production is the supply line out of the ground; refinery inputs are the demand line into the refining system. The two converge through storage and trade: when production runs above inputs, stocks build or exports rise. The crude production vs refinery inputs page charts the pair directly.
A baseline needs five full prior years of observations. The current year never enters its own baseline. The first five years of a series have no complete reference window. Earlier readings plot without a seasonal reference.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.