Benchmark · monthly · indexed (100 = shared start)

S&P 500 vs WTI crude oil

Do equities and oil prices move together, or has the link decoupled?

The S&P 500 vs WTI crude oil benchmark compares the broad US equity market (SPY) with the West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price (DCOILWTICO), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. An SPY line above the oil line means equities have outpaced oil over the window; below means oil is winning. Because oil is far more volatile than equities, divergences between the lines usually reflect oil-specific supply shocks rather than broad-market moves.
Readingsmonthly
Stocks vs oil
740.9
August 2026
1Y change
−3.7%
from 769.4
5Y change
+53.0%
from 484.1
CAGR since start
+6.1%
since January 1993
Max drawdown
−89.6%
December 1998 → July 2008
S&P 500 vs WTI crude oil
Data through August 2026
-1,0000.001,0002,0003,0004,000Jan 1993Oct 1999Jun 2006Mar 2013Nov 2019Aug 2026
S&P 500 (SPY)
WTI crude oil (USD/bbl)
S&P 500 vs WTI crude oil: summary statistics (Max range)
SeriesFirstLatestMinMax
S&P 500 (SPY)100.03190.4100.03190.4
WTI crude oil (USD/bbl)100.0430.659.6703.4
Source
FRED + Yahoo Finance
Frequency
monthly
Data through
August 2026
Refreshed
11 Aug 2026
Copy as markdown

Latest chart point (2026-08-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-08-11); one input series may be lagging.

How this is calculated

Formula
Index SPY and DCOILWTICO (both monthly avg) to 100 at the shared start

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, daily adjusted close, Yahoo Finance) and West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price (DCOILWTICO, daily, dollars per barrel, FRED), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. Both are averaged to monthly. Oil's volatility dominates the indexed scale; periods where the two diverge (oil falling while equities rise) reflect oil-specific supply shocks rather than broad-market moves.

As of August 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) line stands at 3190.4 and the WTI crude oil (USD/bbl) line at 430.6 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The S&P 500 (SPY) line is up 21.7% over the past year and above its long-run median of 399.5.

How to read it

What the spread reveals about the equity-oil link

When the two lines move together, oil is being driven by the same demand conditions that lift equities, the pattern that dominated the 2003-2008 commodity supercycle. When they decouple, with oil falling while equities rise or vice versa, the move is usually oil-specific: a supply shock (positive or negative), an OPEC decision or a storage crisis. The post-2014 window shows almost complete decoupling, with equities climbing while oil traded in a wide range.

Why WTI rather than Brent or breakeven

WTI is the US benchmark crude and the price most directly comparable to dollar-denominated US equities, since both respond to US demand and dollar conditions. Using the spot price rather than a futures or breakeven series keeps the comparison clean: DCOILWTICO is a daily spot series from FRED with a long history, ideal for rebasing against SPY.

Limitations

WTI spot price excludes the cost of carrying, refining and distributing crude, so it differs from what consumers or industrial buyers actually pay. Oil's volatility dominates the indexed scale, which can make equity moves look small by comparison. The energy sector is only a small part of the S&P 500 today (roughly 4%), so equities respond far less to oil than they did in the 1970s and 1980s. Treat the chart as context for the equity-oil link, not investment advice.

Historical extremes

On the rebased scale (100 at January 1993), SPY has climbed to roughly 3,102 while oil sits near 400, but oil's path is far more volatile. Oil peaked near 703 in June 2008 just before the financial crisis, collapsed to roughly 60 during the crisis, and has never reclaimed its indexed 2008 high. The 2020 pandemic crash took oil to its rebased low near 60 briefly before recovering. Equities, by contrast, have made uninterrupted new highs.

How this benchmark is used

Demand-shock versus supply-shock diagnosis

Macro strategists use the equity-oil co-movement to diagnose whether an oil move is demand-driven or supply-driven. When both fall together, demand is the driver (recession risk). When oil falls while equities rise, the move is typically a positive supply shock, like the 2014-2015 shale boom or OPEC production increases, which is a tailwind for energy-consuming equities.

Energy-sector and inflation-pass-through analysis

Equity analysts covering energy and energy-exposed sectors (transport, chemicals, airlines) use this spread to gauge whether oil moves are being driven by broad demand or by supply shocks that will hit their companies differently. A supply-driven oil rise is a margin headwind for energy consumers; a demand-driven rise is a tailwind for cyclicals including energy producers.

Inflation and rates-regime cross-check

Because oil is the most volatile component of headline inflation, sustained oil strength or weakness feeds through to CPI and the rates regime. Allocators track this chart alongside the ten-year-yield-vs-inflation benchmark to separate equity-friendly oil moves (falling oil helping real earnings) from equity-hostile ones (rising oil feeding through to inflation and rate hikes).

Frequently asked questions

7 answers
What is the current s&P 500 vs WTI crude oil?

As of August 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) line stands at 3190.4 and the WTI crude oil (USD/bbl) line at 430.6 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The S&P 500 (SPY) line is up 21.7% over the past year and above its long-run median of 399.5.

How often is this benchmark updated?

This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

What data sources does this chart use?

The chart is built from S&P 500 (SPY) and WTI crude oil (USD/bbl), sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.

Have stocks or oil performed better over this window?

Stocks, by a wide margin. Since January 1993 the SPY line has risen to roughly 3,102 on the rebased scale while the WTI oil line sits near 400, so equities lead oil by roughly 8-to-1. Oil's path is far more volatile: it peaked near 703 in June 2008 and has never reclaimed that indexed high, while equities have made uninterrupted new highs.

Why have stocks and oil decoupled since 2014?

Two structural shifts. First, the US shale boom turned America into a swing producer, so oil supply became more elastic and less tightly linked to global demand. Second, the energy sector shrank as a share of the S&P 500 (from double digits in the 1980s to roughly 4% today), so equity markets respond far less to oil than they used to. The result is near-complete decoupling: equities climb while oil trades in a wide range.

When do stocks and oil move together?

When both are driven by the same demand conditions, which was the dominant pattern during the 2003-2008 commodity supercycle and the 2009-2011 post-crisis rebound. A demand-driven oil rise is equity-friendly because it signals strong global growth; a supply-driven oil rise (like 2022 after the Russia-Ukraine war) is equity-hostile because it raises input costs without improving demand.

Why use WTI rather than Brent?

WTI is the US benchmark crude, and its price responds most directly to US demand and dollar conditions, which are also what drive dollar-denominated US equities. Brent, the European benchmark, responds more to European and Asian demand and to Middle East supply. Either works for a broad equity-oil comparison, but WTI is the cleaner pairing for SPY.

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