| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | 100.0 | 2001.2 | 47.1 | 2076.4 |
| US total market (VTI) | 100.0 | 1064.3 | 66.7 | 1066.1 |
QQQ and VTI adjusted close indexed to 100 at the shared startQQQ (Nasdaq-100) and VTI (total US market), both daily, rebased to 100 at their shared start. Uses split- and dividend-adjusted close. QQQ above VTI means the large, tech-heavy Nasdaq names have outpaced the whole market over the window; the gap is the concentration premium.
As of 11 Aug 2026, the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) line stands at 2001.2 and the US total market (VTI) line at 1064.3 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) line is up 26.0% over the past year and above its long-run median of 217.6.
When QQQ runs well above VTI, the largest technology and growth stocks are doing the heavy lifting for the US market, which has been the dominant pattern through the 2010s and 2020s. When the lines converge, broad-market participation is improving, typically during commodity, financials or industrials cycles when non-Nasdaq sectors lead. The current spread is among the widest on record.
QQQ isolates the 100 largest non-financial Nasdaq names, which together dominate technology, communications and consumer-discretionary leadership. VTI captures the entire investable US market across all sectors and sizes. Comparing them asks how much of broad-market return is concentrated in the handful of mega-cap Nasdaq names versus coming from the rest of the index.
QQQ and VTI are not mutually exclusive: the largest Nasdaq-100 names are also the largest weights in VTI, so the two lines are correlated by construction. The Nasdaq-100 excludes financials, so this spread overstates the tech-versus-everything-else story by leaving out one major sector entirely. The window begins in 2001, missing the 1990s Nasdaq bubble. Treat the chart as context for tech and mega-cap concentration, not investment advice.
On the rebased scale (100 at June 2001), QQQ has climbed to roughly 1,928 while VTI sits near 1,018, so the Nasdaq-100 leads by roughly 89 percentage points. Both bottomed together in October 2002 after the dot-com unwind. QQQ underperformed during the 2008 financial crisis when financials (excluded from the Nasdaq-100) led the rebound, then began a multi-year leadership run as mega-cap technology came to dominate US equity returns.
Allocators use the QQQ-VTI spread to gauge how much of US equity return is coming from technology and mega-cap concentration rather than broad-market earnings. Sustained QQQ outperformance is the evidence behind the 'narrow market' debate, and pairs naturally with the equal-vs-cap-weight benchmark to measure how concentrated that leadership is.
Because the S&P 500 (and VTI) has been dominated by Nasdaq-100 names in recent cycles, many active managers underperform the cap-weighted benchmark specifically when QQQ leads. Performance attribution teams use the spread to explain why active large-cap funds are lagging or beating their benchmark in any given period.
Equity strategists covering technology use the QQQ-VTI spread as a real-time gauge of whether tech leadership is broadening or narrowing. A widening spread on the back of mega-cap AI and cloud names signals a concentrated tech-led rally; a narrowing spread signals regime rotation toward the rest of the market, often tied to rising rates or capex exhaustion.
As of 11 Aug 2026, the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) line stands at 2001.2 and the US total market (VTI) line at 1064.3 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) line is up 26.0% over the past year and above its long-run median of 217.6.
This benchmark is built on daily data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and US total market (VTI), sourced from Yahoo Finance.
Yes. Since June 2001 the QQQ line has risen to roughly 1,928 on the rebased scale while the VTI line sits near 1,018, so the Nasdaq-100 leads the total US market by roughly 89 percentage points. The lead reflects the dominance of mega-cap technology in US equity returns over the past two decades.
The summary callout measures how much the QQQ line has outperformed (positive) or underperformed (negative) the VTI line over the selected window, expressed as a percentage. A positive reading means Nasdaq-100 stocks have beaten the broad US market; a negative reading would mean the broad market has won. The spread is computed over whichever range you have selected.
The Nasdaq-100 is concentrated in the largest technology, communications and consumer-discretionary names, which have driven most of US equity returns since 2013 through a combination of cloud, mobile, and AI-driven earnings growth. Their mega-cap weight in VTI means that when they lead, both QQQ and VTI rise, but QQQ rises more because it owns them at higher weights.
Growth vs value compares two style buckets of the same large-cap universe. Nasdaq vs broad market compares two different index families (Nasdaq-100 vs total market) that overlap heavily in their top holdings but differ in sector weight, with QQQ excluding financials entirely. The two move broadly together because mega-cap tech is in both growth indexes and QQQ, but they are not the same factor.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.