| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 100.0 | 3076.4 | 100.0 | 3076.4 |
| CPI-U | 100.0 | 232.9 | 100.0 | 233.9 |
Latest chart point (2026-06-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-08-11); one input series may be lagging.
Index SPY (monthly avg adjusted close) and CPIAUCSL to 100 at the shared startSPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, daily adjusted close, Yahoo Finance) and the CPI-U headline index (CPIAUCSL, monthly, seasonally adjusted, FRED), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. SPY is averaged to monthly to match CPI. The spread between the lines is the real (inflation-adjusted) equity return over the window. SPY's adjusted close reflects the S&P 500's total return (price appreciation plus dividends).
As of June 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) line stands at 3076.4 and the CPI-U line at 232.9 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The S&P 500 (SPY) line is up 24.9% over the past year and above its long-run median of 393.7.
When the SPY line pulls well above the CPI line, equities have delivered a large positive real return: a dollar invested in the S&P 500 has grown its purchasing power many times over. When the lines converge or invert, inflation is eating equity gains. Such compression has marked stagflation episodes and sustained bear markets, as in 1973-1974 and 2000-2002. The post-1990s spread is among the widest sustained real equity premia on record.
CPI-U is the headline consumer-price index most households and contracts reference, so it tracks the cost of living an S&P 500 investor is trying to outgrow. Using total-return SPY (price plus reinvested dividends) on the equity side makes the comparison fair: it captures the full return a buy-and-hold investor received, not just price appreciation.
CPI-U tracks a fixed urban consumer basket and is sensitive to shelter, energy and food weighting, so it can diverge from other inflation measures like core CPI, the PCE deflator or the GDP deflator. SPY is a price-and-dividend total-return series, but it represents the S&P 500 only, not the broader equity market or a typical investor's actual portfolio after fees and taxes. The window begins in January 1993 when SPY data is reliable. Treat the chart as context for real equity returns, not investment advice.
On the rebased scale (100 at January 1993), SPY has climbed to roughly 3,076 while CPI sits near 233, so equities have outpaced inflation by roughly 13-to-1 over the window, a cumulative real return of more than 1,200%. Both lines rise monotonically across the period; the spread widened fastest during the 1995-2000 tech bull market, the 2009-2020 post-crisis bull, and the 2023-2024 AI-driven rally.
Long-horizon investors and endowments use the SPY-vs-CPI spread as the standard gauge of equity real-return generation over multi-decade windows. The cumulative 13-to-1 outperformance since 1993 is the evidence behind the 'equities for the long run' thesis, and is the benchmark against which active strategies and alternatives are judged.
Inflation-sensitive allocators (pension funds, insurance reserves, retirement savers) use this chart to gauge whether equities are reliably preserving purchasing power against consumer-price inflation in the current regime. A widening spread supports equity overweight; a narrowing spread supports adding inflation hedges like TIPS, commodities or real estate.
This benchmark is the equity leg of the classic stocks-vs-bonds-vs-cash real-return framework. Allocators compare the SPY-vs-CPI spread here against the BND-, IEF-, and TLT-vs-CPI analogues to rank asset classes by real-return generation and to set strategic asset allocation across the three.
As of June 2026, the S&P 500 (SPY) line stands at 3076.4 and the CPI-U line at 232.9 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The S&P 500 (SPY) line is up 24.9% over the past year and above its long-run median of 393.7.
This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from S&P 500 (SPY) and CPI-U, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.
Yes, decisively. Since January 1993 the SPY line has risen to roughly 3,076 on the rebased scale while the CPI line sits near 233, so equities have outpaced inflation by roughly 13-to-1, a cumulative real return of more than 1,200%. The spread widened fastest during the 1995-2000 tech bull, the 2009-2020 post-crisis bull, and the 2023-2024 AI-driven rally.
Over the window since January 1993, roughly 1,200% cumulative, or about 13-to-1 in purchasing-power terms. That is the gap between the rebased SPY line near 3,076 and the rebased CPI line near 233. Annualised, it works out to a high-single-digit real return, consistent with long-run historical equity real-return estimates.
SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and its adjusted close reflects the S&P 500's total return: price appreciation plus reinvested dividends. That makes it a fairer test of purchasing-power preservation than the price-only S&P 500 index, because it captures what a buy-and-hold investor actually received. The window begins in January 1993 when SPY data becomes reliable.
Stocks vs CPI compares equities to consumer prices, asking whether they preserve purchasing power against the cost of living. Stocks vs M2 compares equities to the money supply, asking whether they outpace monetary expansion. The two answer different questions: CPI is the lived cost of living, M2 is the pool of dollars in circulation, and equities can beat one while lagging the other depending on the regime.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.