Benchmark · weekly · % of OI

Treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread

Is speculative positioning leaning toward the short or the long end of the Treasury curve?

The Treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread takes the Leveraged Funds Net/OI for two tenor points (2-year and 10-year Treasury futures) and subtracts the long-end reading from the short-end one. A positive spread means speculators are positioned for curve steepening (long the front, short the long). A negative spread means curve flattening bets dominate. The spread isolates the curve view from the outright duration view each page carries.

Readingsweekly

2Y leveraged Net/OI: -30.3% of OI
10Y leveraged Net/OI: -42.4% of OI
Spread: +12.1 pp
13-week change: +17.6 pp; from −5.5 pp
Percentile of spread: 73rd; of 884 readings · since 2009-09-01

2Y leveraged Net/OI

10Y leveraged Net/OI

Treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread: summary statistics (Max range)
Series	First	Latest	Min	Max
2Y leveraged Net/OI	38.26	-30.32	-59.76	42.42
10Y leveraged Net/OI	-6.07	-42.38	-48.53	29.08

Source: CFTC
Series: treasury-spread:2y treasury-spread:10y
Frequency: weekly
Data through: 4 August 2026
Refreshed: 04 Aug 2026

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How this is calculated

Formula

spread = 2Y Leveraged Funds Net/OI − 10Y Leveraged Funds Net/OI, in percentage points of OI

Leveraged Funds Net/OI in 2-year and 10-year Treasury futures, each as a percentage of open interest. The spread is the 2Y Net/OI minus the 10Y Net/OI: positive means speculators are longer the front end (or shorter the long end) than the 10-year, a curve-steepening bias. Both series come from the existing 2Y and 10Y contract pages.

As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are 2Y leveraged Net/OI at -30.32 % of OI and 10Y leveraged Net/OI at -42.38 % of OI. The 2Y leveraged Net/OI line is up 15.9 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -5.20 % of OI.

Source series

CFTC

Plottedtreasury-spread:2y2Y leveraged Net/OI% of OI · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted Plottedtreasury-spread:10y10Y leveraged Net/OI% of OI · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted

How to read it

What a positive or negative spread means

A positive spread means leveraged funds hold more bullish (or less bearish) positions at the 2Y than at the 10Y, a steepener bias. A negative spread means the opposite: funds are positioned for curve flattening. Because rates positioning is expressed in futures prices, net long means long bond prices (lower yields), so the spread must be read with the yield/price inversion in mind. A positive spread here means the market is positioned for 2Y rates to fall faster than 10Y rates, not rise.

Why the two tenor points as the comparator

2Y and 10Y are the most-traded Treasury futures and anchor the yield curve's most-watched spread. Comparing the two strips the outright duration from both: if speculators are bearish across the curve, the spread is flat; if they are bearish on the long end but flat or long at the front, the spread turns positive, and vice versa.

Limitations

The spread conflates two contracts with different open-interest scales, so magnitudes are not truly comparable in pp terms. It measures positions, not expectations of future spreads. Treat the chart as context for curve positioning, not investment advice.

How this benchmark is used

Curve-steepener positioning

Treasury curve steepeners and flatteners are a core macro trade. The spread between the 2Y and 10Y positioning lines shows which side the speculative consensus is on (a steepener bias or a flattening bias) without having to compare two separate pages.

Frequently asked questions

4 answers

What is the current treasury 2Y–10Y positioning spread?

As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are 2Y leveraged Net/OI at -30.32 % of OI and 10Y leveraged Net/OI at -42.38 % of OI. The 2Y leveraged Net/OI line is up 15.9 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -5.20 % of OI.

How often is this benchmark updated?

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

What data sources does this chart use?

The chart is built from 2Y leveraged Net/OI and 10Y leveraged Net/OI, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

How does this differ from reading the two contract pages separately?

The two pages each show the outright positioning for one tenor. This spread subtracts the long-end reading from the short-end one, so it gives the curve position directly: the difference between the two lines on a single chart, not two pages viewed side-by-side.

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