Benchmark · weekly · % of open interest

2-year Treasury futures positioning

Are hedge funds net long or net short 2-year Treasury futures, and how does it compare with asset managers?

The 2-year Treasury futures positioning measures Leveraged funds and Asset managers net positioning in 2-year Treasury note futures, each as a percentage of open interest. The primary cohort (leveraged funds) expresses directional rate views; the comparator (asset managers) holds more structural duration positions. Long Treasury or SOFR futures position for higher bond prices and therefore LOWER yields. A reading of +30% means the cohort is net long by 30% of open interest; −30% means net short by the same share. It is a gauge of speculative conviction and commercial hedging, not a directional trade signal.

Readingsweekly

Divergence: −68.8 pp; 4 August 2026
Primary position: -30.3%; Leveraged funds
Comparator position: 38.5%; Asset managers
13-week change: +12.5 pp; from -42.8%
Percentile: 25th; of 884 readings

Leveraged funds

Asset managers

Leveraged funds median -5.2%

Zero (net flat)

2-year Treasury futures positioning: summary statistics (Max range)
Series	First	Latest	Min	Max
Leveraged funds	38.3%	-30.3%	-59.8%	42.4%
Asset managers	-18.3%	38.5%	-24.8%	54.6%

Source: CFTC
Series: 2y-treasury:leveraged 2y-treasury:assetManager
Frequency: weekly
Data through: 4 August 2026
Refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

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How this is calculated

Formula

((Leveraged funds long − short) / open interest) × 100, in %

Two cohorts' net positions in 2-year Treasury note futures, each as a share of total open interest, from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Net position is long contracts minus short contracts; dividing by open interest normalizes for contract size so the reading is comparable across the full history. Leveraged funds is the primary speculative cohort; Asset managers is the comparator. A positive reading means net long; negative means net short. Published weekly, positions as of Tuesday close. CFTC TFF report, 2-year Treasury note futures on the CBOT.

As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are Leveraged funds at -30.3% and Asset managers at 38.5%. The Leveraged funds line is up 15.9 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -5.2%.

Source series

CFTC

Plotted2y-treasury:leveragedLeveraged funds% of open interest · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted Plotted2y-treasury:assetManagerAsset managers% of open interest · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted InputCFTC:042601

How to read it

What a positive or negative reading means

A positive Net/OI means the cohort holds more long contracts than short; negative means the opposite. The magnitude shows how concentrated the position is relative to the market's total open interest. Because the series is normalized by open interest, it stays comparable as the contract grows or shrinks over the full history. Extremity is judged against the cohort's own historical range (see the percentile cell), not against a universal threshold. Observed ranges differ sharply between contracts.

Why net position divided by open interest

Raw long and short contract counts grow with market participation, so they trend upward over time and cannot be compared across the full history. Dividing the net position by open interest produces a bounded percentage that is invariant to the market's size. This is the standard normalization used in CFTC's own published percentages and in most practitioner positioning work.

Price and yield move in opposite directions

Treasury and SOFR futures are quoted on price, not yield. A long Treasury futures position profits when bond prices rise, which means yields FALL, so "net long" in the positioning data corresponds to a bet on lower yields, not higher. Similarly, long SOFR futures position for lower short-term rates, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut. Confusing price-long with yield-long is the most common misread of rate positioning data.

Why leveraged funds and asset managers diverge

Asset managers (pension funds, mutual funds) hold structural duration via Treasury futures and are typically net long: they need long-duration assets to match liabilities. Leveraged funds take the other side with more tactical, faster-moving positions, often net short to express a view that yields will rise (bond prices fall). The divergence between the two marks the tension between structural duration demand and speculative rate views.

Limitations

The CFTC reports aggregate positions across all traders in a category. Positioning is a Tuesday-close snapshot published with a three-business-day lag. Treasury and SOFR futures positioning captures exchange-traded speculation; the much larger swaps and cash Treasury markets are not reflected. Treat the chart as context for speculative positioning, not investment advice.

How this benchmark is used

Crowding and contrarian risk assessment

When positioning reaches historical extremes (judged by percentile, not a fixed threshold), the cohort is crowded on one side, which raises the risk of a sharp reversal if the consensus view breaks. Portfolio risk managers track these extremes as early-warning signals, particularly in smaller markets where a few large funds can dominate open interest.

Macro regime confirmation

Trend-following and macro funds cross-reference positioning against price action. A move accompanied by rising net longs has speculative support; a move that pushes positioning into extremes while price stalls is a classic exhaustion pattern. Positioning is one input alongside price, fundamentals and flows.

Frequently asked questions

7 answers

What is the current 2-year Treasury futures positioning?

As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are Leveraged funds at -30.3% and Asset managers at 38.5%. The Leveraged funds line is up 15.9 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -5.2%.

How often is this benchmark updated?

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

What data sources does this chart use?

The chart is built from Leveraged funds and Asset managers, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

What does 2-year Treasury futures positioning measure?

It measures whether leveraged funds and Asset managers are net long or net short 2-year Treasury note futures, each as a share of total open interest. The CFTC publishes the underlying data weekly. A positive reading means the cohort is net long; negative means net short.

What is a high or low reading?

Net/OI ranges differ sharply between contracts, so extremity is judged by the percentile cell against the cohort's own history, not by a fixed percentage threshold. A reading in the top or bottom decile of the full sample marks a historically large position for that specific contract.

How often is the data updated?

Weekly. The CFTC reports positions as of Tuesday close and publishes them on Friday afternoon, US Eastern time, with a roughly three-business-day lag.

Is a net-long reading bullish for 2-year Treasury note?

Not necessarily. Net long means the cohort is positioned for upside, but extreme net longs can mark tops when the crowded position unwinds. And for rate futures specifically, net long means long bond prices, which is a bet on LOWER yields, not higher.

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