| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal surplus or deficit / GDP | 0.70 | -5.77 | -26.86 | 4.30 |
FYFSGDA188S as published (% of GDP)Federal surplus or deficit (FYFSGDA188S) as a share of gross domestic product, expressed as a percentage and published by the Office of Management and Budget. Negative values are a deficit (the government spends more than it raises); positive values are a surplus. The series is annual, so each point is one fiscal year. The post-1970 deficits and the 2020–2021 pandemic spike dominate the modern window.
As of 2025, the latest reading is -5.77 % of GDP. That is up 0.4 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -2.58 % of GDP.
A larger deficit (more negative) means the government is borrowing more to fund its spending, which can stimulate the economy in the short run but adds to the federal debt stock and competes with private borrowing for savings. A surplus is rare in the modern era. The late-1990s surpluses came alongside strong growth and asset-price gains, the typical surplus regime.
A deficit of $100 billion meant something very different in 1960 than in 2025 because the economy was a fraction of the size. Scaling by GDP makes the deficit comparable across decades and against other countries: a 5% deficit is a 5% deficit whether the economy is $1 trillion or $30 trillion.
The series is annual and published by the Office of Management and Budget, so each point is one fiscal year and is revised when the budget is finalised. The ratio measures the flow of borrowing in a single year, not the accumulated stock of debt (tracked separately as federal debt to GDP). Off-budget items and accounting choices can shift the figure from year to year. Treat it as context for fiscal regimes, not investment advice.
The largest deficit on record is roughly minus 26.9% of GDP in 1943, at the peak of Second World War mobilisation, more than four times the size of any modern deficit. The largest surplus is roughly plus 4.3% in 1948, during the post-war demobilisation boom. The late-1990s ran four consecutive surpluses peaking near plus 2.3%, the only sustained surplus period in the modern era. The 2020 pandemic deficit reached roughly minus 15% before reverting.
Policymakers and macro strategists use the deficit-to-GDP ratio as the standard measure of fiscal stimulus size, both historically and cross-country. The 2009 ARRA stimulus, the 2020 CARES Act and the 2021 ARP are each sized in deficit-to-GDP terms so they can be compared against the 1943 wartime mobilisation and against each other.
Bond market participants track the deficit ratio to gauge net new Treasury supply: a larger deficit means more issuance to absorb, which interacts with the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet policy to set long-end yields. The ratio is a standard input to term-premium and supply-demand models for US Treasuries.
The deficit ratio is one half of the fiscal-monetary mix that cross-asset strategists use to set regime: loose fiscal plus tight monetary tends to support the currency and hurt bonds, while loose fiscal plus loose monetary tends to support risk assets and commodities. The ratio is paired with the Fed funds rate and the Fed balance sheet to label the regime.
As of 2025, the latest reading is -5.77 % of GDP. That is up 0.4 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of -2.58 % of GDP.
This benchmark is built on annual data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Federal surplus or deficit / GDP, sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
Across the annual series, which begins in 1929, the largest deficit is roughly minus 26.9% of GDP in 1943 at the peak of Second World War mobilisation, more than four times any modern deficit. The largest surplus is roughly plus 4.3% in 1948 during the post-war boom. The late-1990s ran four consecutive surpluses, the only sustained surplus stretch in the modern era.
The federal government ran surpluses for four consecutive fiscal years from 1998 through 2001, peaking near plus 2.3% of GDP in 2000. That is the only sustained surplus period in the modern era; every fiscal year since 2002 has been a deficit.
The deficit is the flow of borrowing in a single fiscal year: how much more the government spent than it raised. The debt is the accumulated stock of all past borrowing. A deficit adds to the debt each year; a surplus pays it down. PIER20 tracks the debt separately in the gold vs US federal debt benchmark.
Second World War mobilisation required the federal government to spend roughly 40% of GDP on the military, financed by enormous borrowing. The 1943 deficit of roughly minus 27% of GDP was funded by war bonds, price controls and rationing. Modern deficits, even the 2020 pandemic spike near minus 15%, are far smaller relative to the wartime mobilisation peak.
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