| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case-Shiller US home price index | 100.0 | 485.1 | 100.0 | 485.1 |
| Median household income | 100.0 | 321.3 | 100.0 | 321.3 |
Latest chart point (2024-01-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-05-01); one input series may be lagging.
Index CSUSHPISA (annual midpoint) and MEHOINUSA646N to 100 at the shared startS&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPISA, seasonally adjusted, nominal, index Jan 2000 = 100) versus median household income (MEHOINUSA646N, current dollars), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. Both series are nominal so the comparison is like-for-like: a house-price line above the income line means housing costs have grown faster than typical household income over the window. House prices are monthly; household income is annual, so income is shown as a step at each year and the within-year comparison is approximate.
As of 2024, the Case-Shiller US home price index line stands at 485.1 and the Median household income line at 321.3 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Case-Shiller US home price index line is up 5.1% over the past year and above its long-run median of 215.6.
When the house-price line climbs well above the income line, homes have become less affordable: the same job buys less house than it used to. Such gaps have opened during periods of loose mortgage credit, low real rates or supply-constrained construction. When the lines converge or cross, affordability is improving, either because prices are falling or incomes are catching up.
Median household income is the Census Bureau's measure of what a typical US household earns in a year, so it is the natural affordability benchmark for a typical home. Comparing house prices to income, both in nominal current dollars, isolates the affordability question from inflation: it asks whether houses have gotten more expensive relative to earnings, not whether prices have risen in dollar terms.
The Case-Shiller national index is published by S&P Dow Jones Indices and used here with attribution; it tracks repeat sales of single-family homes and excludes new construction and condos, so it understates the full housing market. Median household income is annual and shown as a step at each year, so the within-year comparison is approximate. Neither series reflects mortgage rates, which determine the actual monthly payment a buyer faces. Treat the chart as context for affordability trends, not investment advice.
On the rebased scale (100 at the 1987 start), house prices peaked near 485 in 2024 while median income reached roughly 321, so housing has outpaced income by a factor of about 1.5 over the window. The widest affordability gap on record opened during the 2005-2006 housing bubble, when prices ran far ahead of income before the 2007-2009 crash brought them back. The current gap exceeds even that bubble peak in indexed terms, though mortgage rates and lending standards differ.
Housing economists and policymakers use the price-to-income spread as a long-run affordability gauge, complementing the more timely price-to-rent and mortgage-payment-to-income ratios. It answers a direct question: have homes gotten more or less affordable for a typical earner over time.
The 2000s bubble-and-crash is the clear case where the price-to-income spread ran far above its historical norm, signalling that prices had decoupled from the income base that supports them. Strategists watching for similar regime breaks today use the spread's deviation from its long-run average as one input, alongside mortgage delinquency rates and lending standards.
Real estate investors and homebuilder equity analysts use the affordability trend to gauge demand conditions: a widening gap suppresses first-time buyer demand and shifts the market toward remodels and rentals, while a narrowing gap supports entry-level new construction. The direction of the spread matters more than the level for these calls.
As of 2024, the Case-Shiller US home price index line stands at 485.1 and the Median household income line at 321.3 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Case-Shiller US home price index line is up 5.1% over the past year and above its long-run median of 215.6.
This benchmark is built on annual data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Case-Shiller US home price index and Median household income, sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
Yes. Since 1987 the Case-Shiller national home price index has risen roughly 385% while median household income has risen roughly 221%, so housing has outpaced income by a factor of about 1.5. The 2024 reading shows the widest affordability gap in the dataset, exceeding even the 2005-2006 housing-bubble peak in indexed terms.
Because both series are rebased to 100 at the 1987 start, the spread is widest when prices have run furthest ahead of income. The current window, with house prices near 485 and income near 321 on the rebased scale, is the largest gap on record. The spread narrowed sharply during the 2007-2009 crash as prices fell while income held up.
Price-to-rent compares house prices to rental rates, asking whether buying is expensive relative to renting. Price-to-income compares house prices to household earnings, asking whether homes are affordable for a typical buyer. The two can diverge when rents and incomes move differently, as they did during the 2010s when rents rose faster than incomes.
No. The chart compares house prices to household income only, and ignores mortgage rates, which determine the actual monthly payment a buyer faces. A given price-to-income gap is more affordable at a 3% mortgage than at a 7% mortgage. Mortgage rates are tracked separately by the rates-and-credit benchmarks.
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