Benchmark · weekly · percentile points

Gold–silver positioning spread

Is speculative positioning in gold more extended than in silver, or vice versa?

The gold–silver positioning spread takes the Managed Money Net/OI for gold and silver, ranks each against its own trailing five-year history, and subtracts the silver percentile from the gold one. A positive spread means gold positioning is more extended relative to its own past than silver: speculators are more bullish on gold than silver by relative conviction. The spread is the precious-metals version of the curve spread: is the positioning pressure on gold or silver?

Readingsweekly

Gold managed-money percentile: 80.3percentile points
Silver managed-money percentile: 50.0percentile points
Spread: +30.3 pp
13-week change: −11.5 pp; from +41.8 pp
Percentile of spread: 87th; of 787 readings · since 2011-08-23

Gold managed-money percentile

Silver managed-money percentile

Gold–silver positioning spread: summary statistics (Max range)
Series	First	Latest	Min	Max
Gold managed-money percentile	50.48	80.27	0.50	99.50
Silver managed-money percentile	43.75	50.00	0.50	99.50

Source: CFTC
Series: gold-silver:gold gold-silver:silver
Frequency: weekly
Data through: 15 September 2026
Refreshed: 15 Sept 2026

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How this is calculated

Formula

spread = trailingPercentile260(Gold MM Net/OI) − trailingPercentile260(Silver MM Net/OI)

Gold and silver Managed Money Net/OI are each ranked against their own trailing five-year history (no lookahead), producing a percentile. The spread is the gold percentile minus the silver percentile: positive means gold positioning is more extended relative to its own history than silver, negative the opposite. Both on a 0–100 scale.

As of 15 September 2026, the latest readings are Gold managed-money percentile at 80.27 percentile points and Silver managed-money percentile at 50.00 percentile points. The Gold managed-money percentile line is down 1.5 pp over the past year and above its long-run median of 41.57 percentile points.

Source series

CFTC

Plottedgold-silver:goldGold managed-money percentilepercentile points · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted Plottedgold-silver:silverSilver managed-money percentilepercentile points · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted

How to read it

What a positive or negative spread means

A positive spread means gold's positioning is further right on its own historical distribution than silver's: speculators are more convicted on gold. A negative spread means silver is the more extended contract. Since gold and silver often rally together but silver has higher beta, a negative spread (silver more extended) can show up late in a precious-metals rally as silver starts to catch up. Historically, a wide silver-extreme reading has been a topping signal.

Why the percentile, not the raw Net/OI

Gold and silver Net/OI operate on different ranges. Gold managed money ranges from roughly −4% to +34%, silver from roughly +5% to +50%. Comparing raw values would misstate which is more extended. The percentile transform puts each on the same 0–100 distribution, so the spread reflects relative EXTREMITY within each metal's own history.

Limitations

The trailing window requires 104 weeks of history before either percentile is emitted. The spread measures positioning extremity, not the outright direction. A spread near zero means both metals are similarly placed in their own distributions, which could be both at extremes or both at medians. Treat the chart as context for precious-metal positioning, not investment advice.

How this benchmark is used

The silver catch-up signal

Silver's higher beta means it can lag gold early in a rally and catch up late. The spread turning negative (silver percentile overtaking gold) often signals the late-cycle silver blowoff, a pattern precious-metal desks read as positioning risk.

Frequently asked questions

4 answers

What is the current gold–silver positioning spread?

As of 15 September 2026, the latest readings are Gold managed-money percentile at 80.27 percentile points and Silver managed-money percentile at 50.00 percentile points. The Gold managed-money percentile line is down 1.5 pp over the past year and above its long-run median of 41.57 percentile points.

How often is this benchmark updated?

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

What data sources does this chart use?

The chart is built from Gold managed-money percentile and Silver managed-money percentile, sourced from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

Why does this use percentiles instead of comparing raw positions?

Silver and gold positions sit on different numerical ranges, so a raw difference is not comparable. The percentile puts each on the same 0-100 histogram, so a spread of +10 means gold is 10 percentile points further right on its own distribution than silver on its.

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