| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks (SPY) | 100.0 | 759.9 | 48.9 | 761.6 |
| Total bond (BND) | 100.0 | 176.4 | 98.1 | 181.5 |
| 7-10y Treasury (IEF) | 100.0 | 183.7 | 97.2 | 208.2 |
| 20y+ Treasury (TLT) | 100.0 | 171.7 | 94.9 | 296.7 |
SPY, BND, IEF, TLT adjusted close indexed to 100 at the shared startSPY (equities) versus BND (total bond), IEF (7-10 year Treasury) and TLT (20+ year Treasury), all daily, rebased to 100 at their shared start. Uses split- and dividend-adjusted close. The four lines frame the risk-on / risk-off axis: equities vs the aggregate bond market, and against the rate-sensitive long end that falls hardest when yields rise.
As of 11 Aug 2026, the Stocks (SPY) line stands at 759.9 (all base = 100 at the shared start). That is up 22.7% over the past year and above its long-run median of 186.6.
SPY is the risk-on line that rises most in growth regimes and falls most in recessions. The three bond lines are progressively more rate-sensitive: BND is the diversified aggregate, IEF is intermediate duration, and TLT is the long end that swings hardest when yields move. When all four rise together, financial conditions are easy; when SPY falls while TLT rises, that is a classic risk-off flight to duration.
A single bond aggregate hides the duration effect that drives most bond return variation. BND captures the broad market; IEF isolates the belly of the curve where duration risk concentrates; TLT isolates the long end where a single yield move translates into the largest price change. Plotting all three alongside SPY shows whether equity-bond divergence is coming from the aggregate, the curve belly, or the long end specifically.
All four series are total-return ETF prices that include reinvested dividends, so they reflect the experience of a buy-and-hold investor, not a trader. The window begins in April 2007, which captures the 2008 crisis, the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 rate cycle but misses the 1970s stagflation and the 1990s equity bull market. ETF expense ratios and tracking error introduce small drags versus the underlying indices. Treat the chart as context for stock-bond relative performance, not investment advice.
All three bond lines peaked in mid-2020 at the bottom of the rate cycle (TLT near 297 on the rebased scale in August 2020) and fell sharply as the Fed hiked, with TLT falling the furthest to roughly 173 at its latest reading, well below its 2020 high. SPY bottomed near 49 in March 2009 during the financial crisis and has since climbed above 727, making new highs. The current SPY−TLT spread near 320 percentage points is among the widest in the dataset, reflecting both equity strength and the long-bond bear market of 2022-2024.
The 60/40 portfolio relies on stocks and bonds diversifying each other, which holds when the two move inversely (as in the 2000s and 2010s) but breaks down when they fall together (as in 2022). Allocators use the spread between SPY and TLT to gauge whether the diversification is currently working: a rising spread with low volatility is the 60/40-friendly regime, while a falling spread with high correlation is the hostile one.
Cross-asset strategists use the four-line shape to label market regimes: SPY up with TLT down is growth-driven risk-on; SPY down with TLT up is flight-to-safety risk-off; both up is easy-financial-conditions; both down is a liquidity shock. The regime label sets positioning across credit, currencies and factors.
Fixed-income allocators use the spread between BND, IEF and TLT to decide where on the curve to take duration risk. When TLT is falling faster than IEF (as in 2022), the curve is bear-steepening and duration is a liability; when TLT is rising faster (as in 2020), the curve is bull-steepening and duration is an asset. The chart makes that regime visible at a glance.
As of 11 Aug 2026, the Stocks (SPY) line stands at 759.9 (all base = 100 at the shared start). That is up 22.7% over the past year and above its long-run median of 186.6.
This benchmark is built on daily data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Stocks (SPY), Total bond (BND), 7-10y Treasury (IEF) and 20y+ Treasury (TLT), sourced from Yahoo Finance.
Yes, and by a wide margin. Since April 2007 SPY has risen to roughly 727 on the rebased scale while the three bond lines sit between 173 and 183. The summary callout shows SPY leading TLT by roughly 320 percentage points, reflecting both strong equity returns and the long-bond bear market of 2022-2024.
On the rebased scale (100 at April 2007), SPY peaked near 746 in June 2026 and bottomed near 49 in March 2009. The three bond lines all peaked in mid-2020 (TLT near 297 in August 2020) and have since fallen, with TLT down the most to roughly 173. SPY's current reading is near its all-time high on the series.
2022 was a rare year when the stock-bond diversification broke down. The Fed's fastest rate-hike cycle in decades pushed yields up sharply, which hurt long-duration bonds (TLT fell the most) and simultaneously de-rated equities as discount rates rose. Both fell together because the same driver, rising real yields, hit both asset classes. This is the classic 60/40-hostile regime.
The summary callout measures how much the SPY line has outperformed (or underperformed) the TLT line over the selected window, expressed as a percentage lead. A positive reading means stocks have beaten long Treasuries; a negative reading would mean long bonds have won. The spread is widest after equity bull markets and narrows in flight-to-safety episodes.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.