| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High yield (HYG) | 100.0 | 253.3 | 68.7 | 253.6 |
| 7-10y Treasury (IEF) | 100.0 | 183.9 | 97.3 | 208.5 |
HYG and IEF adjusted close indexed to 100 at the shared startHYG (high-yield corporate bonds) and IEF (7-10 year Treasury), both daily, rebased to 100 at their shared start. Uses split- and dividend-adjusted close. HYG above IEF means credit risk is being paid for; a narrowing gap (or inversion) signals risk-off demand for duration and quality.
As of 11 Aug 2026, the High yield (HYG) line stands at 253.3 and the 7-10y Treasury (IEF) line at 183.9 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The High yield (HYG) line is up 5.1% over the past year and above its long-run median of 164.6.
When the HYG line runs well above the IEF line, the market is rewarding credit risk: investors are being paid a healthy premium over Treasuries for holding lower-quality debt. Such widening has marked growth regimes and easy financial conditions. When the spread narrows or inverts, investors are reaching for safety, either because defaults are rising or because recession risk is being priced in.
IEF isolates the belly of the Treasury curve, the most liquid part of the risk-free market, which is the natural benchmark for credit spread analysis. Comparing HYG to IEF rather than to TLT controls for duration: both HYG and IEF sit in the intermediate part of the curve, so the spread between them isolates credit risk rather than mixing in term-premium effects.
HYG is an ETF that holds a diversified basket of below-investment-grade corporate bonds and reflects total return including reinvested coupons, so it is a credit-market index proxy rather than a pure spread instrument. The spread measured here is a price-return spread, not the option-adjusted credit spread that fixed-income desks quote. The window begins in April 2007, so it captures the 2008 crisis and 2020 pandemic but misses earlier credit cycles. Treat the chart as context for credit-risk appetite, not investment advice.
HYG bottomed near 69 on the rebased scale in November 2008 during the financial crisis, when credit spreads blew out and high-yield bonds collapsed alongside equities, while IEF held up far better as a flight-to-quality destination. HYG then recovered and has since risen above 251, making new highs, while IEF sits near 183 after peaking at roughly 209 in mid-2020. The current HYG−IEF lead near 37 percentage points reflects credit's recovery and the 2022-2024 bond bear market that hit IEF harder.
Credit strategists use the HYG−IEF spread as a real-time gauge of credit-risk appetite: a widening spread with HYG making new highs signals a risk-on regime where investors are reaching for yield, while a narrowing or inverting spread signals risk-off demand for quality. The spread's direction is a leading indicator of broader risk-asset positioning.
A sharp HYG underperformance versus IEF historically precedes or coincides with recessions, because high-yield credit weakens first when default risk rises. The 2008 collapse, in which HYG fell to roughly 69 while IEF held its ground, is the clearest case in the dataset. Strategists watch the spread's behavior for early warnings, alongside credit-default-swap indices and high-yield option-adjusted spreads.
Because high-yield credit and equities share the same equity-sensitive part of the capital structure, the HYG−IEF spread is closely watched by equity traders as a confirmation signal for equity risk appetite. Divergences, where equities make new highs while high-yield credit weakens, have historically warned of equity drawdowns, as in mid-2008 and late-2015.
As of 11 Aug 2026, the High yield (HYG) line stands at 253.3 and the 7-10y Treasury (IEF) line at 183.9 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The High yield (HYG) line is up 5.1% over the past year and above its long-run median of 164.6.
This benchmark is built on daily data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from High yield (HYG) and 7-10y Treasury (IEF), sourced from Yahoo Finance.
Yes. Since April 2007 HYG has risen to roughly 251 on the rebased scale while IEF sits near 183, so the summary callout shows HYG leading IEF by roughly 37 percentage points. The lead reflects credit-risk premium plus the 2022-2024 bond bear market that hit duration-heavy Treasuries harder than shorter-duration high yield.
On the rebased scale (100 at April 2007), HYG peaked near 253 in July 2026 and bottomed near 69 in November 2008 during the financial crisis. IEF peaked near 209 in August 2020 at the bottom of the rate cycle and has since fallen back to roughly 183 as the Fed hiked. HYG's current reading is near its all-time high on the series.
The 2008 financial crisis was a credit event: high-yield credit spreads blew out as default risk spiked, and investors fled to the safety of US Treasuries. HYG fell to roughly 69 on the rebased scale while IEF held near or above its starting level, because the same risk-off flow that crushed high-yield credit supported the risk-free asset. This is the classic risk-off regime for the credit market.
It is not a true credit spread. A high-yield credit spread, as quoted by fixed-income desks, is the option-adjusted yield difference between a high-yield index and a duration-matched Treasury index, expressed in basis points. This benchmark is a total-return price spread between two ETFs over time, which mixes in coupon income, default experience and duration effects. It is the right chart for tracking credit-risk appetite visually, but not for quoting a spread number.
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