Ten-year Treasury yield vs inflation
How does the nominal ten-year yield compare with recent CPI inflation?
| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) | 4.08% | 4.47% | 0.62% | 15.32% |
| CPI inflation (trailing 12m) | 0.67% | 3.73% | -1.96% | 14.59% |
- Latest chart point (2026-06-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-07-21); one input series may be lagging.
DGS10 averaged to monthly; CPI inflation = 100 × (CPI / CPI 12 months earlier − 1)The daily 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) is averaged into a monthly series, then shown alongside trailing 12-month CPI-U inflation (CPIAUCSL). The summary callout is labelled 'yield minus trailing inflation' rather than an expected real yield: the 10y is a forward-looking nominal rate and CPI inflation is backward-looking, so their difference is not a market-implied real yield.
- Data through
- June 2026
- Last refreshed
- 23 Jul 2026
- Native frequency
- monthly
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