| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) | 4.08% | 4.47% | 0.62% | 15.32% |
| CPI inflation (trailing 12m) | 0.67% | 3.73% | -1.96% | 14.59% |
Latest chart point (2026-06-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-08-07); one input series may be lagging.
DGS10 averaged to monthly; CPI inflation = 100 × (CPI / CPI 12 months earlier − 1)The daily 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) is averaged into a monthly series, then shown alongside trailing 12-month CPI-U inflation (CPIAUCSL). The summary callout is labeled 'yield minus trailing inflation' rather than an expected real yield: the 10y is a forward-looking nominal rate and CPI inflation is backward-looking, so their difference is not a market-implied real yield.
As of June 2026, the latest readings are 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) at 4.47% and CPI inflation (trailing 12m) at 3.73%. The 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) line is up 0.1 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of 5.42%.
When the spread is positive and wide, bonds are paying a healthy real return over inflation. The early-1980s Volcker disinflation was the clearest regime of this kind: tight monetary policy and deeply attractive real yields. When the spread is negative, inflation is outrunning the nominal yield and bondholders are losing purchasing power. The 2022 episode was the modern version: rapid inflation that nominal yields had not yet caught up to.
The summary callout subtracts trailing 12-month CPI inflation from the monthly-average 10-year Treasury yield. It is computed over whichever range you have selected, so it stays consistent with the visible window. The figure is labeled 'yield minus trailing inflation' rather than a real yield because the 10y is a forward-looking nominal rate and CPI is backward-looking: their difference is an accounting spread, not a market-implied expected real yield.
The 10-year yield is a forward-looking nominal rate set by the market; CPI inflation is a backward-looking realized rate. Subtracting them does not produce a true market-implied real yield, which would come from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) breakevens. The monthly averaging of DGS10 smooths intra-month yield moves. Trailing-12m CPI is stale during turning points because it lags real-time inflation by up to a year. Treat the chart as context for the nominal-real yield gap, not investment advice.
The spread peaked near plus 9.4 points in August 1983, at the height of the Volcker disinflation when nominal yields stayed high while inflation fell fast. The trough is roughly minus 6.4 points in March 2022, when inflation spiked faster than the 10-year yield could adjust. The 2020-07 reading saw the 10-year at a record low near 0.6% while inflation was briefly negative. The current spread near plus 0.7 points is tight by historical standards.
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities give a cleaner market-implied real yield, but TIPS breakevens can be illiquid or stale at short maturities and in stress periods. Rate strategists use the 10y-minus-trailing-CPI spread as a quick-and-dirty real-yield proxy in those conditions, with the explicit caveat that it mixes a forward nominal rate with a backward inflation print.
Equity duration trades key off real-yield direction: long-duration growth stocks tend to underperform when real yields rise, and short-duration value stocks tend to outperform. The spread is one input to that rotation call, alongside TIPS breakevens and the actual real-yield curve. Strategists watch the spread's direction more than its level.
A sustained positive and widening spread labels a bond-bear regime where nominal yields are rising faster than inflation is falling; a narrowing or negative spread labels a bond-bull regime. Cross-asset allocators use the regime to set duration positioning across the stocks-vs-bonds and high-yield-vs-Treasuries benchmarks in the rates-and-credit cluster.
As of June 2026, the latest readings are 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) at 4.47% and CPI inflation (trailing 12m) at 3.73%. The 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) line is up 0.1 pp over the past year and below its long-run median of 5.42%.
This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from 10-year Treasury yield (monthly avg) and CPI inflation (trailing 12m), sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
Across the monthly series, which begins in January 1962, the spread peaked near plus 9.4 percentage points in August 1983 at the height of the Volcker disinflation, and bottomed near minus 6.4 points in March 2022 when inflation spiked faster than the 10-year yield could adjust. The current spread sits near plus 0.7 points, tight by historical standards.
No, not strictly. A market-implied real yield comes from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) breakevens, which compare a nominal Treasury with an inflation-linked one of the same maturity. This spread subtracts trailing 12-month CPI inflation from the nominal 10-year yield, mixing a forward nominal rate with a backward-looking inflation print. It is a useful proxy when TIPS are illiquid, but it is not a true expected real yield.
Inflation spiked through 2021 and 2022 as supply shocks and stimulus-fed demand pushed CPI above 8%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose more slowly because the market initially expected the inflation to be transitory. By March 2022 the spread reached roughly minus 6.4 points, the most negative reading in the series. It narrowed only after the Fed's rate-hike cycle pulled nominal yields back above inflation.
TIPS breakevens compare a nominal Treasury with an inflation-linked Treasury of the same maturity, giving a clean market-implied expected inflation rate. This benchmark instead compares the nominal 10y with realized trailing CPI. The two can diverge sharply when market expectations differ from recent inflation, as they did in early 2022 when breakevens warned of persistent inflation while the trailing spread was still deeply negative.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.