| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. commercial crude stocks | 338.76 | 406.99 | 247.32 | 540.72 |
| Five-year average | 329.33 | 432.81 | 268.78 | 493.60 |
| Five-year minimum | 319.46 | 425.68 | 247.93 | 446.85 |
| Five-year maximum | 338.76 | 441.69 | 286.10 | 539.36 |
seasonalReference(t) = same EIA week (±1 week) in the five complete years before t; average/min/max of the per-year valuesWeekly U.S. ending stocks of crude oil excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (EIA series WCESTUS1), plotted against the five-year seasonal average, minimum, and maximum for the same calendar week. The reference uses the same EIA week number (plus or minus one week) in the five full calendar years before each observation. The current year never enters its own baseline. Each reference year contributes the mean of its tolerated observations. The seasonal range lines start once a five-year window exists.
As of 31 July 2026, the latest reading is 406.99 Million Barrels. That is down 3.9% over the past year and above its long-run median of 324.57 Million Barrels.
A reading in the upper part of the five-year band means commercial crude is plentiful relative to the time of year. A bearish supply backdrop, since refiners and traders can draw on comfortable inventories rather than bid for prompt barrels. A reading near the band's floor means stocks are tight for the season. The setup behind firmer spot pricing, as buyers compete for scarce barrels.
Energy series move with the calendar year. A raw level cannot say if the market is tight or slack. This page ranks each week against the same week in the five full years before it. A July reading is judged against prior Julys, not against the full year. The baseline uses only earlier years. The current year never enters its own baseline. The rule allows one week of tolerance when holidays shift the report week.
For each date, the reference is the same EIA week number (plus or minus one week) in the five full calendar years before it. Each reference year adds one value (the mean of its tolerated observations). The average, minimum, and maximum use those five yearly values. The lines start once a five-year window exists. The window rolls forward as old years leave.
The five-year window moves as history rolls forward, so an extreme from a decade ago no longer anchors the range. Source revisions can move history. Commercial crude stocks is one input to the market balance. Prices also move on the weekly surprise versus expectations, not on the level alone. Treat the chart as context for supply and demand conditions, not investment advice.
The WPSR's commercial crude number is the most-watched single release in commodity markets; the surprise versus consensus moves WTI within minutes of the Thursday report. This page is the same series on the same weekly cadence, judged against the same five-year convention, so the reading can be compared directly to how the report and the market frame it.
The Weekly Petroleum Status Report uses a five-year average and range. The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report does the same for gas. This page uses the same idea with a strict same-week rule. It uses five full prior years and allows one week of tolerance. The current year never enters the baseline. Our average can differ slightly from EIA tables when holiday weeks differ.
As of 31 July 2026, the latest reading is 406.99 Million Barrels. That is down 3.9% over the past year and above its long-run median of 324.57 Million Barrels.
This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from U.S. commercial crude stocks, Five-year average, Five-year minimum and Five-year maximum, sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The percentile cell ranks the latest reading against the full sample. The 100th percentile is the highest on record. The 0th is the lowest. The five-year range is relative. Read full-history extremes on the full chart range, not only on the seasonal range.
This page excludes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It covers only commercial stocks held by industry. The total U.S. crude oil inventory page adds the SPR on top. The split matters because the SPR is a policy stockpile: its 2022-23 releases and later refills moved total inventory sharply while commercial stocks followed their own cycle.
A baseline needs five full prior years of observations. The current year never enters its own baseline. The first five years of a series have no complete reference window. Earlier readings plot without a seasonal reference.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.