| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distillate demand (4-week avg) | 3017.75 | 3584.75 | 2651.50 | 4701.00 |
| Five-year average | 3379.00 | 3703.90 | 2749.19 | 4462.37 |
seasonalAverage(t) = mean of same EIA week (±1 week) in the five complete years before tWeekly the four-week average of U.S. product supplied of distillate fuel oil (EIA series WDIUPUS2), plotted against the five-year seasonal average only for the same calendar week. The reference uses the same EIA week number (plus or minus one week) in the five full calendar years before each observation. The current year never enters its own baseline. Each reference year contributes the mean of its tolerated observations. The average line starts once a five-year window exists.
As of 31 July 2026, the latest readings are Distillate demand (4-week avg) at 3584.75 Thousand Barrels per Day and Five-year average at 3703.90 Thousand Barrels per Day. The Distillate demand (4-week avg) line is up 1.8% over the past year and below its long-run median of 3772.75 Thousand Barrels per Day.
Distillate demand is heating oil in winter and diesel for trucking, rail and agriculture all year. A reading above the five-year band means the heating and freight economy is consuming more distillate than the season warrants, which draws stocks and supports the distillate crack. The 2022 episode is the reference for what sustained above-band demand does to prices. A below-band reading signals a mild winter or soft freight, letting inventories build.
Energy series move with the calendar year. A raw level cannot say if the market is tight or slack. This page ranks each week against the same week in the five full years before it. A July reading is judged against prior Julys, not against the full year. The baseline uses only earlier years. The current year never enters its own baseline. The rule allows one week of tolerance when holidays shift the report week.
For each date, the reference is the same EIA week number (plus or minus one week) in the five full calendar years before it. Each reference year adds one value (the mean of its tolerated observations). The five-year average uses those yearly values. This page plots the average only. The average line starts once a five-year window exists and rolls forward.
The five-year average moves as history rolls forward. Source revisions can move history. Distillate demand is one input to the market balance. Prices also move on the weekly surprise versus expectations, not on the level alone. Treat the chart as context for supply and demand conditions, not investment advice.
Distillate carries two demand curves: heating oil in the cold months and diesel behind freight activity year-round. Reading the four-week average against its seasonal band separates the two. A winter reading tests the heating load, a summer reading tests the freight economy. Trucking and home-heating buyers hedge against exactly this stock-to-demand balance.
This page uses a same-week rule over five full prior years. It allows one week of tolerance. The current year is excluded. It plots the seasonal average only. Compare the reading to the average line, not to a min or max range.
As of 31 July 2026, the latest readings are Distillate demand (4-week avg) at 3584.75 Thousand Barrels per Day and Five-year average at 3703.90 Thousand Barrels per Day. The Distillate demand (4-week avg) line is up 1.8% over the past year and below its long-run median of 3772.75 Thousand Barrels per Day.
This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Distillate demand (4-week avg) and Five-year average, sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The percentile cell ranks the latest reading against the full sample. The 100th percentile is the highest on record. The 0th is the lowest. This page charts the five-year seasonal average only. Read extremes from the full history and the percentile cell.
Both are product-supplied demand pages, but the drivers differ: gasoline follows the driving calendar, distillate follows heating and freight. They rarely move together. A mild winter weakens distillate while summer driving is normal. The pages isolate each product's own seasonal story.
A baseline needs five full prior years of observations. The current year never enters its own baseline. The first five years of a series have no complete reference window. Earlier readings plot without a seasonal reference.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.