| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI managed-money percentile | 32.21 | 22.80 | 0.50 | 99.50 |
| EIA crude inventory tightness | 20.00 | 99.50 | 0.50 | 99.50 |
wtiPct = trailingPercentile260(WTI MM Net/OI); tightness = 100 − seasonalPercentile(commercial crude); eiaAsOf(cftcDate) = latest tightness with WPSR releaseDate ≤ cftcDate; spread = wtiPct − tightnessTwo 0–100 series: WTI Managed Money Net/OI trailing percentile (from the CFTC positioning data), and inventory tightness: 100 minus the EIA seasonal percentile of commercial crude stocks. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report stocks (Friday period) are joined to each CFTC as-of date by release availability: the Friday print is treated as public on the following Wednesday, so a Tuesday CFTC observation cannot see stocks that only publish the next day. A high WTI percentile means speculators are heavily net-long crude; a high tightness reading means crude stocks are low for the season.
As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are WTI managed-money percentile at 22.80 index (0-100) and EIA crude inventory tightness at 99.50 index (0-100). The WTI managed-money percentile line is up 693.3% over the past year and below its long-run median of 41.57 index (0-100).
A positive spread means speculative positioning runs ahead of the inventory signal: funds are betting on a tighter market than the barrels in tanks justify, which has historically been a mean-reverting setup. A negative spread (inventories tighter than positioning suggests) means the physical market is tighter than speculators are positioned for, the configuration ahead of a speculative catch-up rally.
The percentile transform strips scale from both: WTI Net/OI ranges from roughly −2% to +21%, and crude inventories are in thousands of barrels that grow over time. The percentile puts each on its own 0–100 distribution, and the trailing seasonal percentile for EIA ensures the inventory score is seasonally adjusted. Both numbers mean the same thing: 100 is a historical extreme.
The two series are on different calendars. CFTC data runs through Tuesday, EIA data through the prior Friday. Positioning and inventories reflect different parts of the market and are not causally linked. The spread is a cross-signal alignment check, not a mechanical model. Treat the chart as context for the speculative-versus-physical gap, not investment advice.
When the WTI positioning percentile far exceeds the inventory tightness reading, speculators are long into a physically comfortable market, the setup that has preceded several notable WTI corrections. The spread quantifies the gap that each weekly report closes or widens.
As of 4 August 2026, the latest readings are WTI managed-money percentile at 22.80 index (0-100) and EIA crude inventory tightness at 99.50 index (0-100). The WTI managed-money percentile line is up 693.3% over the past year and below its long-run median of 41.57 index (0-100).
This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from WTI managed-money percentile and EIA crude inventory tightness, sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
Crude stocks can be at record levels in barrels but still tight for the season if supply is running behind demand. The seasonal percentile adjusts for the calendar, so a reading of 90 always means 'stocks are low for this time of year', regardless of the raw barrel count.
Speculative positioning is aligned with the physical stock signal: speculators hold a position that matches the inventory tightness. Neither side is ahead of the other. The market is in equilibrium on this cross-signal.
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