Gold price vs US federal debt
Has gold kept pace with the growth of US government borrowing?
| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GLD) | 100.0 | 1029.2 | 99.8 | 1029.2 |
| US federal debt | 100.0 | 502.3 | 100.0 | 502.3 |
- Latest chart point (2026-01-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-07-24); one input series may be lagging.
Index GLD (monthly avg adjusted close) and GFDEBTN to 100 at the shared startSPDR Gold Shares (GLD, daily adjusted close, Yahoo Finance) versus total US federal debt (GFDEBTN, quarterly, FRED), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. GLD is averaged to monthly and debt is carried at its quarterly observation, so the lines share a monthly axis. Gold above the debt line means gold has outpaced borrowing growth over the window, the classic 'gold as a hedge against fiscal expansion' trade. GLD is an ETF proxy for spot gold, not the metal itself.
- Data through
- January 2026
- Last refreshed
- 24 Jul 2026
- Native frequency
- monthly
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