| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GLD) | 100.0 | 1029.2 | 99.8 | 1029.2 |
| US federal debt | 100.0 | 502.3 | 100.0 | 502.3 |
Latest chart point (2026-01-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-08-11); one input series may be lagging.
Index GLD (monthly avg adjusted close) and GFDEBTN to 100 at the shared startSPDR Gold Shares (GLD, daily adjusted close, Yahoo Finance) versus total US federal debt (GFDEBTN, quarterly, FRED), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. GLD is averaged to monthly and debt is carried at its quarterly observation, so the lines share a monthly axis. Gold above the debt line means gold has outpaced borrowing growth over the window, the classic 'gold as a hedge against fiscal expansion' trade. GLD is an ETF proxy for spot gold, not the metal itself.
As of January 2026, the Gold (GLD) line stands at 1029.2 and the US federal debt line at 502.3 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Gold (GLD) line is up 74.4% over the past year and above its long-run median of 297.4.
When the gold line climbs well above the debt line, gold has appreciated faster than US borrowing has grown, the outcome investors who hold gold as a hedge against fiscal deficits and money creation are positioning for. When gold falls below the debt line, borrowing is outpacing gold, a regime that has typically coincided with rising real rates or falling inflation expectations.
Total federal debt (GFDEBTN) is the stock of outstanding US Treasury securities, published quarterly by the Treasury. Scaling gold by debt asks whether the metal has kept up with the accumulation of government liabilities, the direct test of gold's long-running reputation as a fiscal hedge. Unlike the deficit (a flow), debt is a stock, so it moves smoothly and compounds over time.
GLD is an ETF that tracks spot gold less its expense ratio, not the metal itself; holders of physical gold avoid the expense ratio but bear storage and transaction costs. Federal debt is a stock measured to the cent but does not capture unfunded liabilities such as future entitlement promises. The comparison is dollar-for-dollar and ignores real interest costs on the debt. Treat the chart as context for gold's fiscal-hedge role, not investment advice.
On the rebased scale (100 at the January 2005 start), gold peaked near 1,029 in January 2026 and brushed its starting level of roughly 100 in mid-2005, the only period it traded at or below its starting value relative to debt. Federal debt has grown roughly fivefold over the same window. Gold has therefore outpaced borrowing growth by a factor of roughly two at its recent highs, though the gap has expanded and compressed across multiple rate and inflation regimes.
Gold's long-running reputation as a hedge against government borrowing and currency debasement is tested directly by this ratio. A gold line above the debt line is the evidence base for the fiscal-hedge thesis; the chart answers a direct question: has gold kept up with the growth of US liabilities.
Gold carries no yield, so its price is especially sensitive to real interest rates. Strategists use this ratio alongside the 10-year yield vs inflation benchmark to separate gold moves driven by fiscal expansion from moves driven by falling real rates: when the ratio rises while real rates are stable, the fiscal channel is doing the work.
The ratio is cited in sovereign-credit and dollar-confidence commentary as a measure of whether the metal is pricing rising concern about US fiscal trajectory. Because both numerator and denominator are dollar-denominated, the chart removes FX noise and isolates the gold-vs-borrowing signal that commentators use as a fiscal-confidence indicator.
As of January 2026, the Gold (GLD) line stands at 1029.2 and the US federal debt line at 502.3 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Gold (GLD) line is up 74.4% over the past year and above its long-run median of 297.4.
This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Gold (GLD) and US federal debt, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.
Yes. Since January 2005 gold has risen roughly tenfold while total federal debt has grown roughly fivefold, so the gold line sits well above the debt line on the rebased scale. The gap is gold's outperformance of borrowing growth over the window.
On the rebased scale (100 at January 2005), the gold line peaked near 1,029 in January 2026 and brushed its starting value of roughly 100 in mid-2005, the only period gold traded at or below its starting level relative to debt.
GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) is a liquid, publicly quoted ETF that tracks the spot gold price less a small expense ratio, and it shares the Yahoo Finance daily price pipeline used for the other asset lines. It is a proxy for spot gold rather than the metal itself: holders of physical gold avoid the expense ratio but bear storage and transaction costs.
CPI measures consumer prices; federal debt measures the stock of government borrowing. Gold vs CPI shows purchasing-power preservation; gold vs debt tests gold's reputation as a hedge against fiscal expansion specifically. The two move broadly together but answer different questions.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.