| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (USD) | 100.0 | 15472.5 | 57.4 | 28332.1 |
| M2 money supply | 100.0 | 201.0 | 100.0 | 201.0 |
Latest chart point (2026-06-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-08-11); one input series may be lagging.
Index BTC-USD (monthly avg adjusted close) and M2SL to 100 at the shared startBitcoin spot price in US dollars (BTC-USD, daily adjusted close, Yahoo Finance) and the M2 money supply (M2SL, billions of dollars, monthly, FRED), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. Bitcoin is averaged to monthly to match M2's frequency. A Bitcoin line above the M2 line means Bitcoin has outpaced money-supply growth over the window; the gap is the real, money-supply-adjusted Bitcoin return.
As of June 2026, the Bitcoin (USD) line stands at 15472.5 and the M2 money supply line at 201.0 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Bitcoin (USD) line is down 40.5% over the past year and above its long-run median of 2890.5.
When the Bitcoin line climbs well above the M2 line, Bitcoin has delivered a large positive real, money-supply-adjusted return. Because Bitcoin's price is far more volatile than M2, the spread between the two lines is dominated by Bitcoin's swings, and the M2 line functions chiefly as a slow-moving benchmark for the purchasing power of each dollar.
M2 is the Federal Reserve's broad money measure, covering cash, checking, savings and small time deposits, and a dollar held as cash loses purchasing power roughly in line with its growth. Comparing Bitcoin to M2 asks whether Bitcoin has outpaced the creation of dollars themselves, which is a stricter test than comparing it to consumer prices. A Bitcoin line above M2 represents a real gain relative to the money stock.
Bitcoin is a single asset priced on global exchanges, while M2 is a domestic money aggregate, so the comparison crosses market and monetary regimes. The series begins in September 2014, when daily Bitcoin price data becomes reliable, so it excludes Bitcoin's earliest and largest percentage moves. The chart uses monthly averages of daily closes, which smooths intra-month volatility. Treat the comparison as context for Bitcoin's money-supply-adjusted return, not investment advice.
On the rebased scale (100 at the September 2014 start), Bitcoin peaked near 28,332 in July 2025 and bottomed around 57 in September 2015, the only month it traded below its starting level relative to M2. The M2 line has risen roughly threefold over the same window, so Bitcoin has outpaced money-supply growth by roughly two orders of magnitude at its highs. Prior drawdowns from peaks have been steep and fast, but the timing and depth of each cycle have varied widely.
Bitcoin is widely pitched as a fixed-supply alternative to fiat money, so the natural empirical test is whether it has outpaced the very money supply it claims to hedge against. This ratio answers that question directly: a Bitcoin line well above M2 is the evidence base for the store-of-value thesis, and the depth of each drawdown relative to M2 is the evidence base against it.
Allocators comparing Bitcoin against gold and broad equities as inflation or debasement hedges use this ratio alongside the gold-vs-debt and total-equity-vs-M2 ratios to rank assets by money-supply-adjusted return over a shared window. Bitcoin's outperformance by roughly two orders of magnitude at its highs is the figure cited in that comparison.
The ratio is used to track Bitcoin's response to monetary regimes: it rose sharply through the 2020-2021 pandemic-era QE and corrected through the 2022 tightening, the same directional pattern seen in risk assets generally. Strategists use the ratio to ask whether Bitcoin is behaving as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset or a monetary hedge on any given regime.
As of June 2026, the Bitcoin (USD) line stands at 15472.5 and the M2 money supply line at 201.0 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Bitcoin (USD) line is down 40.5% over the past year and above its long-run median of 2890.5.
This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Bitcoin (USD) and M2 money supply, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.
On the rebased scale (100 at the September 2014 start), the Bitcoin line peaked near 28,332 in July 2025 and bottomed around 57 in September 2015. The September 2015 low is the only month Bitcoin traded below its starting level relative to M2 in the dataset.
Yes. Since September 2014 the M2 money supply has roughly doubled while Bitcoin's dollar price has grown by roughly two orders of magnitude, so the Bitcoin line stands far above the M2 line on the rebased scale. The gap is Bitcoin's real, money-supply-adjusted return over the window.
CPI measures consumer prices; M2 measures the money stock itself. Bitcoin vs CPI shows purchasing-power preservation; Bitcoin vs M2 shows whether Bitcoin has outpaced the creation of dollars themselves, which is a stricter test. PIER20 publishes both perspectives across the liquidity cluster.
Not by itself. A high reading shows Bitcoin is extended relative to the money supply, and prior peaks were followed by steep drawdowns as the ratio mean-reverted. But Bitcoin's volatility means the reversion has come through large price declines, sharp recoveries, or both, and the timing has been unpredictable. This benchmark is context for valuation regimes, not a market-timing signal, and PIER20 provides research software rather than investment advice.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.