| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total US market (VTI) | 100.0 | 1018.1 | 72.1 | 1018.1 |
| M2 money supply | 100.0 | 446.8 | 100.0 | 446.8 |
Latest chart point (2026-06-01) predates the newest source observation (2026-08-11); one input series may be lagging.
Index VTI (monthly avg adjusted close) and M2SL to 100 at the shared startVanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI, daily adjusted close, Yahoo Finance) versus the M2 money supply (M2SL, billions of dollars, monthly, FRED), both rebased to 100 at their shared start. VTI is averaged to monthly to match M2. This is a price index, not a true market-capitalisation series: it tracks the total US equity market's level rather than the dollar value of all outstanding shares. A VTI line above M2 means equities have outpaced money-supply growth over the window.
As of June 2026, the Total US market (VTI) line stands at 1018.1 and the M2 money supply line at 446.8 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Total US market (VTI) line is up 25.4% over the past year and above its long-run median of 211.3.
When the index climbs, equity prices are expanding faster than the money available to sustain them, a pattern historically associated with late-cycle markets such as the late 1990s and 2020-2021. When it falls, either stocks are correcting or the money supply is growing faster than equity prices, periods that have often coincided with accumulation.
M2 is the Federal Reserve's broad money measure, covering cash, checking, savings and small time deposits. Stock prices tend to rise when the money stock grows, so comparing equities to M2 strips out the part of that rise that reflects a larger pool of dollars. What is left measures whether equities are outpacing monetary expansion in real terms.
VTI is a market-cap-weighted price series, so the largest companies dominate the numerator and dividends are only partially reflected. M2 is a domestic measure, while a large share of US corporate revenue is earned abroad. Treat the index as context for valuation regimes, not a timing signal. This benchmark is research software output, not investment advice.
The equity-to-money ratio bottomed at roughly 48 in March 2009, the trough of the global financial crisis, when equities collapsed while M2 kept growing. It climbed through the 2010s and peaked near 149 in late 2021 at the height of the post-pandemic stimulus rally, then fell back to around 122 by September 2022 as the 2022 reset took equities lower. The May 2026 reading is the highest in the series' history, exceeding the 2021 peak, meaning broad US equities are more extended against the money supply than at any prior point in the dataset. Each prior extreme eventually reverted toward the long-run median through a mix of equity declines, money-supply growth, or both.
The Buffett indicator compares total US market capitalisation to GDP and is the most widely cited valuation-regime framework for the broad equity market. This ratio is a close cousin that swaps the denominator from economic output to the money stock, so it asks the same late-cycle question through a monetary lens. Strategists who already reference the Buffett indicator use the M2 variant as a cross-check on whether elevated valuations reflect real stretching or faster money growth alone.
The post-2008 narrative that equities rise because central banks print money is tested directly by this ratio. A VTI line tracking the M2 line means equities have risen only in step with money creation; a line well above M2 means equities have decoupled upward. The May 2026 reading, the highest in the series, is the strongest version of that decoupling on record.
The ratio is used as a regime label alongside the Buffett indicator and the Shiller CAPE: a reading near the long-run median is associated with accumulation phases, while readings well above it are associated with late-cycle stretching. Like those frameworks it is descriptive of regime, not predictive of timing.
As of June 2026, the Total US market (VTI) line stands at 1018.1 and the M2 money supply line at 446.8 (both base = 100 at the shared start). The Total US market (VTI) line is up 25.4% over the past year and above its long-run median of 211.3.
This benchmark is built on monthly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.
The chart is built from Total US market (VTI) and M2 money supply, sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service and Yahoo Finance.
Over the full history of this series, yes: the index has risen well above its starting value of 100, meaning broad US equities appreciated several times over relative to the M2 money supply.
CPI measures consumer prices; M2 measures the money stock itself. Stocks vs CPI shows purchasing-power preservation; stocks vs M2 shows whether equity growth is outpacing monetary expansion. PIER20 publishes both: see Stock prices vs consumer prices.
Across the series, which begins in June 2001, the ratio peaked at roughly 227 in May 2026 (the most recent observation) and bottomed near 48 in March 2009 during the global financial crisis. The late-2021 stimulus rally took the ratio to around 149 before the 2022 reset pulled it back toward 122.
The Buffett indicator compares total US stock-market capitalisation to GDP: the dollar value of all shares outstanding over the dollar value of all economic output. This benchmark uses a price index (VTI) rather than full market cap, and uses M2 money supply rather than GDP, so it asks whether equity prices are outpacing the money stock rather than whether the market's value exceeds the economy's output. The two move broadly together but answer different questions and use different denominators (a money aggregate vs a flow of goods and services).
Not by itself. A high reading shows equities are extended relative to the money supply, and prior peaks (late 1990s, late 2021) were followed by periods of poor or negative equity returns as the ratio reverted toward its long-run median. But the reversion has come through equity declines, money-supply growth, or a mix of both, and the timing has varied widely. This benchmark is context for valuation regimes, not a market-timing signal, and PIER20 provides research software rather than investment advice.
One tested idea, through the evidence stack. No migration of any kind.