Benchmark · weekly · index (0-100)

U.S. energy inventory stress

How tight are U.S. energy inventories overall, across crude, gasoline, distillate and natural gas?

This composite puts four U.S. inventory series on one 0-to-100 scale: commercial crude, gasoline, distillate, and natural gas. A score of 100 means a product's stocks sit at the tightest extreme of their own seasonal history. A score of 0 means the slackest. The overall index is the equal-weight average of the four scores. It asks whether energy inventories are tight broadly, or only in one product.

Readingsweekly

Composite: 74.88index (0-100)
13-week change: +11.67 index (0-100); from 63.21
Tightest component: 99.50index (0-100); Distillate · 2026-07-31
Slackest component: 33.33index (0-100); Natural gas · 2026-07-31
Composite percentile: 100th; of 605 readings · since 2015-01-02

Overall stress

Crude

Gasoline

Distillate

Natural gas

U.S. energy inventory stress: summary statistics (Max range)
Series	First	Latest	Min	Max
Overall stress	20.25	74.88	0.50	74.88
Crude	99.50	73.33	0.50	99.50
Gasoline	80.00	93.33	0.50	99.50
Distillate	99.50	99.50	0.50	99.50
Natural gas	40.00	33.33	0.50	99.50

Source: EIA
Series: composite:overall crude gasoline distillate naturalGas
Frequency: weekly
Data through: 31 July 2026
Refreshed: 11 Aug 2026

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How this is calculated

Formula

stress_i = 100 − trailingSeasonalPercentile_i (0-100); overall = mean(stress_crude, stress_gasoline, stress_distillate, stress_naturalGas)

Four inventory series enter the index: commercial crude (WCESTUS1), total motor gasoline (WGTSTUS1), distillate (WDISTUS1), and Lower-48 working gas (NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF). Each is ranked against their own same-week seasonal history: stress_i = 100 − trailingSeasonalPercentile_i, where the percentile uses the same ISO week (±1 week) in the five complete years before each date. A score of 100 means the product's stocks are at the tightest extreme of their seasonal history; 0 the slackest. The overall index is the equal-weight mean of the four component scores. A high number always means tighter inventories.

As of 31 July 2026, the latest reading is 74.88 index (0-100). That is up 36.1% over the past year and above its long-run median of 40.24 index (0-100).

Source series

EIA

Plottedcomposite:overallOverall stressindex (0-100) · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted PlottedcrudeCrudeindex (0-100) · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted PlottedgasolineGasolineindex (0-100) · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted PlotteddistillateDistillateindex (0-100) · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted PlottednaturalGasNatural gasindex (0-100) · weekly · Not seasonally adjusted

How to read it

What a high or low reading means

A high overall reading means several products are tight for the season at once. The configuration that lets one product's shortage spill into another, as in 2022 when distillate and natural-gas scarcity shared the same tightness narrative. A low reading means inventories are broadly comfortable. The component lines show whether the pressure is broad or concentrated: crude-only tightness (2020-21) and natgas-only tightness (2022-23) both registered on the index, but with opposite shapes across the components.

Why the seasonal percentile as the scale

The four products have different units (barrels, cubic feet) and different volatility, so raw levels cannot be averaged. Each is ranked against its own same-week history. The same ISO week in the five complete years before the date, never including the current year. And 100 minus that percentile turns 'tight for the season' into a common 0-100 scale. A distillate reading of 85 and a gas reading of 85 mean the same thing: both near the tightest fifth of their seasonal ranges.

Why equal-weight the four products

The overall index is the mean of the four component scores, so a squeeze in one product cannot dominate. The equal weighting is deliberate: the index exists to detect breadth. How many products are tight at once. Which a volume-weighted construction would hide behind crude's size.

Limitations

The percentile is relative to the product's own five-year history, so an absolute shortage and a mild seasonal drift both score 'tight' if the drift is large enough. The five-year window rolls forward, re-baselining the scale. The index covers four headline inventories, not every product. Propane, jet fuel and regional detail are separate pages. Treat the chart as a breadth gauge, not a price forecast.

How this benchmark is used

Cross-product scarcity breadth

The 2022 episode is a useful reference for breadth: distillate and natural-gas stress were elevated for much of the year while the four components did not move as one block every week. The index formalises that read. Macro desks use it to separate 'one product is tight' (a basis or crack trade) from 'energy is broadly tight' (a macro energy trade).

Frequently asked questions

6 answers

What is the current U.S. energy inventory stress?

As of 31 July 2026, the latest reading is 74.88 index (0-100). That is up 36.1% over the past year and above its long-run median of 40.24 index (0-100).

How often is this benchmark updated?

This benchmark is built on weekly data. The page is refreshed when the source publishes new observations; the freshness block below the chart shows the exact data-through date and when PIER20 last fetched the file.

What data sources does this chart use?

The chart is built from Overall stress, Crude, Gasoline, Distillate and Natural gas, sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

What does a reading of 50 mean?

A 50 means the average product sits at the median of its seasonal history. Exactly in the middle of the tight-to-slack range. Readings above 50 mean more products are on the tight side of their ranges than the slack side.

How is this different from the individual inventory pages?

Each product page shows one series against its five-year band. This page discards the levels and keeps only the seasonal ranking, so it can average products that share no unit. It answers the breadth question the single pages cannot.

Why does the index use seasonal percentiles rather than raw levels?

Because raw levels cannot be averaged across products . 300 million barrels and 3 trillion cubic feet have no common scale. The percentile transform puts every product on the same 0-100 distribution before any averaging happens.

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