How to read it
The BIS gap equals private credit to GDP minus its one-sided trend. A positive gap shows that credit is above trend.
Benchmark · quarterly · pp
U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap
Is U.S. private credit running above its long-run trend?
U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap tracks BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. It uses quarterly data.
U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap tracks BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. It uses quarterly data.
- Credit / GDP
- 140.3% of GDP
- One-sided trend
- 151.8% of GDP
- BIS credit gap
- −11.5 pp
- Period change
- +0.5 pp
- from −12.0 pp
- Historical percentile
- 17th
- of 144 readings · since 1990-03-31
U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap
Credit / GDP
One-sided trend
| Series | First | Latest | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit / GDP | 125.47 | 140.25 | 118.16 | 171.97 |
| One-sided trend | 120.66 | 151.79 | 120.66 | 169.91 |
How this is calculated
BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gapPIER20 calculates this benchmark from official observations from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The formula is BIS private-sector credit/GDP, trend and published gap. The source table lists each selector and source link.
The latest data is from Q4 2025. The Credit / GDP reading is 140.25 % of GDP. The One-sided trend reading is 151.79 % of GDP. The BIS credit gap reading is -11.54 pp. The Credit / GDP line is down 2.3 pp over the past year. It is below its long-run median of 150.48 % of GDP.
Source series
BIS via direct APIHow to read it
How this benchmark is used
Why traders watch it
Credit and equity traders use this benchmark to track U.S. private credit against its long-run trend.
Frequently asked questions
4 answersWhat is the latest reading for U.S. private credit-to-GDP gap?
The latest data is from Q4 2025. The Credit / GDP reading is 140.25 % of GDP. The One-sided trend reading is 151.79 % of GDP. The BIS credit gap reading is -11.54 pp. The Credit / GDP line is down 2.3 pp over the past year. It is below its long-run median of 150.48 % of GDP.
How often does this benchmark update?
The source publishes quarterly data. PIER20 updates the page after each new observation. The chart shows the data date and fetch date.
What data sources does this chart use?
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the data. The methodology section lists each source series.
Where does the data come from?
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) publishes the source data. The source table lists each series and its exact link.